(gozags.com)
Shot volume is just one half (how often you shoot) of one half (offense) of basketball, so it’s not the alpha and omega of the sport by any means. Then again, it’s rather under-discussed.
You can’t show shot volume on YouTube or Synergy, coaches can’t diagram a play specifically to get an offensive board, volume doesn’t get “chess match” heuristic privileges, and avoiding turnovers is supposed to occur as a matter of course.
That’s all well and good, but, just like with shooting accuracy and defense, some teams are exceptionally good at shot volume. If we want to understand these teams, we should consider the frequency with which they attempt shots.
Shot volume index for tournament teams
Turnover percentage, offensive rebound percentage, and shot volume
Conference games only: ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC, American, WCC
TO% OR% SVI 1. Gonzaga 12.9 30.2 101.8 2. LSU 16.9 38.4 101.0 3. Cincinnati 16.1 36.1 100.8 4. Purdue 15.8 34.6 100.5 5. Tennessee 15.5 31.1 99.2 6. Houston 16.9 34.7 99.2 7. North Carolina 17.1 34.6 99.0 8. Virginia 15.4 30.2 98.9 9. Villanova 15.1 29.1 98.8 10. Saint Mary's 16.8 33.0 98.6
Wherever you hear Gonzaga discussed, there will be due tributes offered to Brandon Clarke (I’ve offered them!) and Rui Hachimura and to the miracle that Mark Few has wrought at a small Jesuit school in Spokane. And, sure, make a mental adjustment if you wish for results from WCC games. (But not too much of one. The non-Gonzaga WCC is stronger than an entire Nevada- and Utah State-equipped Mountain West that no one’s yelling at.)
Still, you can go through a good deal of Zag praise and discourse and dive deeply into Zag scouting reports before you learn that this offense’s sheer volume of attempts is just as statistically extreme as is shooting 62 percent on your twos in conference play. This is an exceptionally talented team that, in addition to everything else, is enacting a really convincing tribute to Bo Ryan circa 2015.
As always, one of the most interesting nuggets coughed up by this SVI thing is how the hoops gods don’t care one whit how you get the job done. Some coaches hate offensive boards. Others hate turnovers. Both approaches can land you in exactly the same spot in terms of shot attempts.
TO% OR% SVI Duke 17.7 33.4 97.7 Michigan 13.5 22.7 97.5
So, yes, this can be handy for understanding why teams are good on offense. As for the very different quest to divine bracket tips, however, I prefer to use shot volume in about the same manner that the NCAA appears to use the NET for everyone except St. John’s.
That is, I tend to think of shot volume not as a secret recipe (though it certainly worked well enough for North Carolina in 2017) and more as a disqualifier. I tend to stay away from teams too far down on the complete list, but that’s just me.
Enjoy the Madness, I hope I’m not sued for capitalizing that, and be sure to take proper notice of the video- and scouting-report-blind water in which all basketball swims, the silent 25 percent.
Here’s the complete roster of 2019 shot volumes in conference play, with pithy category titles at plus and minus one standard deviation.
Shot volume index (SVI)
Conference games only: ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC, American, WCC
Gluttonous TO% OR% SVI 1. Gonzaga 12.9 30.2 101.8 2. LSU 16.9 38.4 101.0 3. Cincinnati 16.1 36.1 100.8 4. Purdue 15.8 34.6 100.5 5. Nebraska 14.3 28.2 99.3 6. Tennessee 15.5 31.1 99.2 7. Houston 16.9 34.7 99.2 8. NC State 17.1 34.9 99.1 9. North Carolina 17.1 34.6 98.9 10. Virginia 15.4 30.2 98.9 11. SMU 16.5 32.5 98.8 12. Villanova 15.1 29.1 98.8 13. Saint Mary's 16.8 33.0 98.6 14. Wichita State 16.3 31.3 98.4 15. Baylor 19.1 38.4 98.3 16. Notre Dame 15.1 27.2 97.9 Normal TO% OR% SVI 17. Duke 17.7 33.4 97.7 18. San Francisco 15.1 26.9 97.7 19. Michigan 13.5 22.7 97.5 20. Kentucky 18.1 33.6 97.3 21. Michigan State 18.8 35.1 97.2 22. Arizona 16.8 29.7 97.1 23. Texas 20.1 31.1 97.0 24. Penn State 17.6 31.2 96.8 25. USC 15.8 26.6 96.8 26. Connecticut 17.8 31.6 96.8 27. Iowa 17.1 29.4 96.6 28. Iowa State 15.9 26.6 96.6 29. Florida 17.6 30.6 96.5 30. Kansas State 17.1 29.3 96.5 31. Rutgers 17.7 30.7 96.5 32. Georgetown 17.2 29.2 96.4 33. Indiana 17.0 28.7 96.4 34. Wisconsin 14.4 22.4 96.4 35. Florida State 17.6 30.0 96.3 36. Minnesota 17.2 29.1 96.3 37. Oklahoma State 15.6 24.9 96.2 38. Auburn 17.3 28.8 96.1 39. St. John's 13.9 20.7 96.1 40. Butler 16.1 25.8 96.0 41. Oregon 17.5 28.9 95.9 42. Temple 15.7 24.5 95.9 43. Providence 18.8 31.8 95.7 44. South Carolina 18.8 31.8 95.7 45. Wake Forest 19.9 34.8 95.7 46. Texas Tech 17.1 27.0 95.5 (average, huzzah) 47. Virginia Tech 17.6 28.3 95.5 48. Colorado 18.4 30.2 95.4 49. DePaul 19.4 32.4 95.3 50. East Carolina 16.6 25.5 95.3 51. Illinois 18.0 29.0 95.3 52. Miami 16.6 25.5 95.3 53. Mississippi State 19.7 33.4 95.3 54. BYU 15.7 23.1 95.2 55. Ole Miss 18.2 29.3 95.2 56. Oregon State 17.5 27.5 95.2 57. UCF 18.3 28.9 95.0 58. Memphis 19.5 32.1 95.0 59. Arkansas 18.3 28.9 94.9 60. Louisville 18.5 29.4 94.9 61. UCLA 19.2 31.2 94.9 62. Boston College 17.8 27.3 94.8 63. California 16.5 24.1 94.8 64. Texas A&M 19.0 30.4 94.8 65. Arizona State 19.1 30.5 94.7 66. Oklahoma 17.2 25.3 94.6 67. Syracuse 18.8 29.2 94.5 68. Xavier 19.9 32.0 94.5 69. Pitt 19.6 31.0 94.4 70. Utah 19.0 29.5 94.4 71. Northwestern 15.5 20.0 94.0 72. Seton Hall 19.9 31.0 94.0 73. Alabama 19.3 29.0 93.8 74. TCU 20.1 31.1 93.8 75. Maryland 20.7 32.3 93.7 76. West Virginia 22.2 36.1 93.6 Starving TO% OR% SVI 77. Ohio State 19.2 27.3 93.2 78. Pepperdine 18.3 24.9 93.1 79. Marquette 19.0 26.5 93.0 80. Kansas 20.1 29.1 92.9 81. Loyola Marymount 19.6 27.8 92.9 82. Missouri 21.6 33.0 92.9 83. Creighton 18.0 23.5 92.8 84. Stanford 20.8 30.1 92.6 85. Pacific 19.0 24.8 92.3 86. Washington 20.4 28.5 92.3 87. Clemson 19.3 25.5 92.2 88. South Florida 23.6 36.1 91.8 89. San Diego 19.0 23.7 91.7 90. Tulsa 18.7 22.1 91.4 91. Tulane 21.4 28.0 91.0 92. Washington State 20.2 23.9 90.5 93. Vanderbilt 21.9 27.5 90.1 94. Santa Clara 20.9 22.4 89.0 95. Georgia Tech 21.9 23.9 88.6 96. Portland 20.6 20.6 88.5 AVG 18.0 29.4 95.5
John Gasaway 