If Thomas Walkup bumps into any Villanova players, he can set them straight on which team really had the most remarkable shooting performance of 2015-16.
Watching Villanova do amazing NCAA tournament things in terms of scoring against Miami and in terms of shooting against Oklahoma made me realize I didn’t really have good information close at hand to describe just how amazing this was. I resolved to be better prepared the next time a once-in-a-generation feat takes place.
In the offseason I’ve compiled a quick and dirty record book of the best scoring and shooting performances in the seven thousand major-conference games that have been played since 2006. Last week I rolled out part one of this data, the 10 best scoring games we’ve seen in major-conference play in the last decade. One takeaway here was that if you want to see historically insane scoring, your chances are increased dramatically by attending a Big Ten game on senior day-slash-night.
Now I want to look at shooting. If you’re wondering how impressed you should have been by the 82.7 effective field goal percentage that Jay Wright’s team posted against the Sooners, the answer there is “extremely.” Out of seven thousand games (6,996, if you must know), I’ve only seen that mark bettered twice. In fact teams record an eFG north of 80 percent, on average, less than once a year.
opponent H/A eFG PPP PF PA MOV 1. Clemson 12-Jan-11 Georgia Tech H 83.3 1.31 87 62 25 2. Ohio St. 6-Mar-11 Wisconsin H 83.0 1.61 93 65 28 3. Providence 23-Feb-14 Butler A 82.1 1.37 87 81 6 4. Illinois 6-Jan-11 Northwestern H 80.7 1.20 88 63 25 5. W. Virginia 31-Jan-07 Rutgers A 80.4 1.48 89 83 6 6. Illinois 29-Dec-10 Iowa A 80.2 1.30 87 77 10 7. Arizona 7-Mar-09 Stanford H 80.0 1.41 101 87 14
Observant readers have noted that three of these seven games took place within a span of two weeks, and indeed two of these shooting performances were recorded by the same Illinois team within eight days of each other. Something in the drinking water in Urbana back in 2011, apparently.
Of course, none of these efforts come anywhere close to the 92.5 effective field goal percentage that Creighton recorded at Southern Illinois on February 14, 2012. And, speaking of incredible shooting outside the major conferences, Thomas Walkup and Stephen F. Austin hung an 83.3 eFG percentage up on Abilene Christian this past January.
In terms of what constitutes “incredible” shooting, I find 75.0 percent to be a good eFG marker, roughly equivalent in its rare occurrences to scoring 1.50 points per possession. In the last decade of major-conference play, there have been 39 instances of teams hitting at or above 75.0 percent in eFG terms (see below).
What’s most interesting to me about this list is the near-equality it displays between home and road games (20 home, 19 road). This is a dramatic departure from the list of games where teams score 1.50 points per trip or better: 25 home games, and just nine road contests. Maybe incredible shooting is something that just happens, and the hoops gods will drop these unforeseeable events on teams whenever and wherever they choose. At a minimum it’s safe to say that venue doesn’t seem to matter nearly as much with insane shooting as it does with insane scoring.
Behold, teams recording eFG’s of 75.0 percent or better in major-conference play, 2006-16:
opponent H/A eFG PPP PF PA MOV 1. Clemson 12-Jan-11 Georgia Tech H 83.3 1.31 87 62 25 2. Ohio St. 6-Mar-11 Wisconsin H 83.0 1.61 93 65 28 3. Providence 23-Feb-14 Butler A 82.1 1.37 87 81 6 4. Illinois 6-Jan-11 Northwestern H 80.7 1.20 88 63 25 5. W. Virginia 31-Jan-07 Rutgers A 80.4 1.48 89 83 6 6. Illinois 29-Dec-10 Iowa A 80.2 1.30 87 77 10 7. Arizona 7-Mar-09 Stanford H 80.0 1.41 101 87 14 8. Oregon 29-Dec-11 Washington St. A 78.6 1.33 92 75 17 9. Seton Hall 3-Mar-11 St. John's H 78.6 1.22 84 70 14 10. UCLA 31-Dec-09 Arizona St. H 78.6 1.20 72 70 2 11. Iowa 4-Feb-06 Michigan H 78.6 1.32 94 66 28 12. NC State 15-Feb-06 Florida St. H 78.4 1.20 86 64 22 13. NC State 18-Feb-07 Virginia Tech H 78.1 1.37 81 56 25 14. Michigan St. 6-Feb-16 Michigan A 78.0 1.29 89 73 16 15. Oklahoma 23-Jan-16 Baylor A 78.0 1.22 82 72 10 16. Maryland 2-Feb-13 Wake Forest H 77.9 1.22 86 60 26 17. Ohio State 31-Dec-10 Indiana A 77.6 1.29 85 67 18 18. Oregon 9-Feb-08 Cal A 77.6 1.39 92 70 22 19. BC 12-Jan-08 Wake Forest H 77.1 1.48 112 73 39 20. Syracuse 5-Mar-11 DePaul H 77.0 1.52 107 59 48 21. Utah 10-Feb-16 Washington H 76.9 1.19 90 82 8 22. Duke 14-Jan-07 Miami A 76.8 1.33 85 63 22 23. Arizona 26-Jan-08 Washington H 76.7 1.34 84 69 15 24. Arizona 4-Jan-07 Washington A 76.5 1.38 96 87 9 25. Seton Hall 14-Feb-12 St. John's H 76.4 1.34 94 64 30 26. Pitt 24-Jan-07 Cincinnati A 76.3 1.20 67 51 16 27. Colorado 2-Mar-10 Nebraska A 76.2 1.25 81 68 13 28. Missouri 28-Feb-13 S. Carolina A 76.1 1.44 90 68 22 29. Georgetown 14-Jan-10 Seton Hall H 76.1 1.27 85 73 12 30. Indiana 15-Feb-15 Minnesota H 75.9 1.37 90 71 19 31. Creighton 19-Feb-14 Marquette A 75.6 1.30 85 70 15 32. NC State 10-Jan-06 BC A 75.6 1.33 78 60 18 33. Kansas 29-Feb-16 Texas A 75.0 1.23 86 56 30 34. Auburn 17-Feb-16 Arkansas A 75.0 1.16 90 86 4 35. Indiana 22-Jan-15 Maryland H 75.0 1.39 89 70 19 36. Creighton 16-Feb-14 Villanova A 75.0 1.45 96 68 28 37. Vanderbilt 16-Feb-12 Ole Miss A 75.0 1.44 102 76 26 38. Notre Dame 28-Feb-11 Villanova H 75.0 1.44 93 72 21 39. Miami 31-Jan-10 Virginia Tech H 75.0 1.20 82 75 7
John Gasaway 