One measurement of performance in the NCAA tournament is wins above or below what every other team with the same seed has done. The difference between expected wins and your actual victories is performance against seed expectations (PASE).

Back in the day, PASE was shaping up to be a handy item. Then the field expanded to 68 teams, and assigning praise and blame became a bit less tidy with a few extra results knocking around.

The proposal here is to ignore the round of 68 entirely, both its wins and its losses. Take Virginia’s loss to Colorado State in the round of 68 this year. Don’t worry, Cavaliers. Never mind, ACC. For PASE purposes, we’ll simply count as though the Hoos missed the tournament entirely. Which they kind of played like they did. The Rams, conversely, do count as a No. 10 seed that won zero games in the 2024 tournament.

Based on tournament results from 1985 through 2024, here are the values for expected wins by seed starting from the round of 64. If you greet that first Thursday morning with one of the following numbers still listed as a live fact next to your name, this is what we expect of you….

seed    expected Ws       seed    expected Ws
  1.       3.30            9.        0.62
  2.       2.33            10.       0.60           
  3.       1.84            11.       0.67          
  4.       1.56            12.       0.51       
  5.       1.15            13.       0.26
  6.       1.04            14.       0.15
  7.       0.90            15.       0.10
  8.       0.71            16.       0.01

Wins in and subsequent to round of 64 only

For reference, here are the top performances by conferences in the NCAA tournament.

Best tournaments as conferences
Performance against seed expectations (PASE)

                     expected Ws  actual     PASE
1.  Big East   1985      9.38       18       +8.62
2.  SEC        1996      5.67       14       +8.33
3.  ACC        2022      4.97       13       +8.03
4.  ACC        1990      6.16       14       +7.84
5.  Pac-12     2021      4.27       12       +7.73

If you want to show a good look as a conference, put three teams in the Final Four.

Now the other side of the story.

Worst tournaments as conferences

                     expected Ws  actual     PASE
1.  Big Ten    2021     14.63        8       -6.63
2.  Big East   2010     14.34        8       -6.34
3.  Big 8      1990      8.13        2       -6.13
4.  Pac-12     2016     10.06        4       -6.06
5.  Big 12     2024     12.63        7       -5.63

The implosion we saw from the Big Ten in the Indy bubble three years ago was indeed historic. For once, social media was bang on.

Michigan at least came within a three of that year’s Final Four. Still, if not for a 14-1 run by the Wolverines midway through the second half of their round of 32 win over LSU, we’re looking at a number for conference futility that can never be touched.