Iowa is an offensive juggernaut despite the fact that the team did not shoot as accurately from the field as Purdue in conference play. The Hawkeyes also came in behind Ohio State in terms of effective field goal percentage. Indeed, Fran McCaffery’s group was less successful at getting the ball into the basket than the Boilermakers, the Buckeyes, Michigan, Illinois and Michigan State in Big Ten play. Yet Iowa had the league’s best offense.
We see this same paradox at work in the whole-season results at KenPom. The Hawkeyes rank No. 2 in the nation for adjusted offensive efficiency behind only Gonzaga. (Grab those precious pre-tournament numbers today while you still can! There are just a few hours left, otherwise you’ll have to root through Ken’s CSV formatting from here to eternity.) Iowa achieved this lofty status despite the fact that there are 32 teams nationally that shot more accurately than the Hawkeyes this season. Shooting is so overrated.
No, actually, making shots is a good thing. It will always will be No. 1 with a bullet among the four factors in terms of importance. (Free throw rate, by stark contrast, is purely adverbial. Ask Virginia about 2019.) Because I’m basically lazy and because I grew fatigued with always having to juggle four factors, a few years back I decided to shrink the group down to just three factors. Don’t tell Dean Oliver.
By combining turnover and offensive rebound rates into one number, we get a nifty little item that correlates quite well with points per possession.
In 2022, Iowa looks beautiful in terms of the nifty little item.
Shot volume index (SVI)
Conference games only: ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC
TO% OR% SVI 1. Iowa 12.5 30.2 102.3 2. UCLA 13.1 30.3 101.7 3. St. John's 14.7 30.6 99.9 4. Kentucky 16.5 33.9 99.4 5. Duke 16.3 33.2 99.3
McCaffery’s men recorded the highest number we’ve seen for shot volume since North Carolina in 2018. Take a bow, Hawkeyes.
The top three teams for shot volume all followed a similar recipe in 2022. They pulled down about 30 percent of their missed shots, a hair better than the pack in a major-conference world that averages 29 percent. Then, on top of that base level of offensive rebounding, our top three like all teams held onto the ball as best they could. The lower the turnover rate, the higher the shot volume.
At the other end of the shot volume scale, we find three teams that transcended the challenge of a scarcity of attempts and still made the 2022 NCAA tournament.
TO% OR% SVI 70. TCU 23.2 35.0 91.9 71. Creighton 20.8 27.4 91.4 72. Stanford 23.0 33.1 91.3 73. Iowa State 20.3 25.3 91.0 74. Georgia 21.4 24.6 89.4 75. Vanderbilt 21.2 23.5 89.2 76. Oklahoma 23.1 26.1 88.2
Note the prevalence not only of resourceful NCAA tournament entrants but also of teams from one major conference in particular. Indeed, you’ll read down the shot-volume rankings for a long time before you hit a single Big 12 team.
TO% OR% SVI 31. Kansas 19.0 34.0 96.4
The 2022 Big 12 season has been aptly described as “a two and a half month long rock fight.” Indeed it was, one that deviated from the major-conference norm on shot volume twice as much, statistically, as it did on eFG percentage defense. The Big 12 as a league would rank No. 58 out of 76 major-conference teams for shot volume. You just didn’t see many shot attempts in that conference this season.
One more thing. We would be remiss if we didn’t acknowledge one or two extreme performances to be found outside the six major conferences.
TO% OR% SVI Houston 17.8 37.1 99.2 San Francisco 15.7 30.6 98.7 Conference games only
Kelvin Sampson continues to be the Obi Wan of shot volume, which, possibly, makes Todd Golden the Luke of this tableau. The Cougars, of course, have long been swaggering and voracious legends of the offensive glass. Conversely, note how the Dons follow the Iowa-UCLA script down to virtually the last decimal. Truly, it’s a school of thought that just needs a catchy name.
Here’s how every major-conference team rates out for shot volume, complete with pithy group labels at plus and minus one standard deviation:
Shot volume index (SVI)
Conference games only: ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC
Gluttonous TO% OR% SVI 1. Iowa 12.5 30.2 102.3 2. UCLA 13.1 30.3 101.7 3. St. John's 14.7 30.6 99.9 4. Kentucky 16.5 33.9 99.4 5. Duke 16.3 33.2 99.3 6. UConn 17.6 36.5 99.3 7. NC State 14.9 29.1 99.0 8. Wisconsin 12.7 23.6 98.9 9. Syracuse 15.1 29.3 98.9 10. Illinois 15.7 30.6 98.8 11. Michigan 15.7 30.5 98.7 12. Washington State 16.8 33.2 98.7 13. Virginia 15.7 30.3 98.6 Normal TO% OR% SVI 14. North Carolina 16.1 30.7 98.3 15. USC 18.0 35.5 98.3 16. Xavier 14.5 26.4 98.2 17. Villanova 16.3 29.7 97.6 18. Purdue 17.1 31.5 97.5 19. Seton Hall 18.1 34.0 97.5 20. Northwestern 14.7 25.4 97.5 21. Miami 13.8 22.3 97.0 22. Ohio State 16.4 22.3 97.0 23. Arizona 18.4 33.4 96.9 24. Indiana 15.2 25.2 96.8 25. Florida State 17.5 30.8 96.8 26. Auburn 18.4 33.1 96.8 27. Washington 17.1 29.7 96.7 28. Arkansas 17.7 31.1 96.7 29. Providence 17.6 30.7 96.6 30. DePaul 17.7 30.8 96.5 31. Kansas 19.0 34.0 96.4 32. Oregon 17.2 29.3 96.4 33. Boston College 17.1 29.0 96.4 34. Baylor 19.4 34.6 96.2 35. Maryland 16.2 26.3 96.2 36. Georgetown 17.9 30.5 96.1 37. Mississippi State 19.4 34.3 96.1 38. Texas A&M 19.4 34.2 96.1 39. Minnesota 13.1 18.5 95.9 40. Texas 18.4 30.9 95.7 41. Alabama 20.3 35.5 95.6 (average) 42. Virginia Tech 17.9 28.9 95.4 43. Kansas State 16.5 25.4 95.4 44. Notre Damme 14.5 20.6 95.4 45. Florida 18.0 28.5 95.1 46. Clemson 16.5 24.7 95.1 47. Tennessee 19.6 32.5 95.1 48. Louisville 17.1 25.7 94.9 49. Penn State 18.4 28.7 94.7 50. Oregon State 18.1 27.4 94.5 51. Butler 17.4 25.6 94.5 52. Utah 18.1 26.9 94.3 53. West Virginia 18.9 28.9 94.2 54. Cal 17.1 24.3 94.2 55. Rutgers 18.7 28.2 94.2 56. Marquette 16.2 21.9 94.1 57. Michigan State 19.3 29.1 93.9 58. Texas Tech 19.9 29.9 93.5 59. Wake Forest 19.3 28.0 93.4 60. Arizona State 17.5 23.3 93.3 61. South Carolina 21.3 32.8 93.2 62. LSU 21.8 33.9 93.1 63. Oklahoma State 20.7 30.6 92.9 Starving TO% OR% SVI 64. Nebraska 17.3 21.0 92.4 65. Colorado 20.2 28.2 92.4 66. Pitt 20.6 28.9 92.3 67. Georgia Tech 18.3 23.0 92.2 68. Ole Miss 19.7 26.5 92.2 69. Missouri 21.1 29.5 92.0 70. TCU 23.2 35.0 91.9 71. Creighton 20.8 27.4 91.4 72. Stanford 23.0 33.1 91.3 73. Iowa State 20.3 25.3 91.0 74. Georgia 21.4 24.6 89.4 75. Vanderbilt 21.2 23.5 89.2 76. Oklahoma 23.1 26.1 88.2 AVG 17.8 29.0 95.6
Enjoy the Madness!
John Gasaway 