Wisconsin is ranked No. 11 in the AP poll and the Badgers are currently being projected as an NCAA tournament No. 3 seed by the bracket hive mind. Greg Gard’s team has achieved this lofty status in spite of the fact that this very same group barely cracks the top 30 at KenPom and, indeed, has outscored its Big Ten opponents by an average of just 0.6 points per game over the course of 11 outings.
What can account for this disparity? Start with the usual February suspects, such as Wisconsin’s almost Providence-like wizardry in close games. The Badgers are 12-1 in contests decided by single digits, with the only close loss coming at the hands of the aforementioned clutch Friars.
It is also the case, however, that Johnny Davis and his mates are actively and wantonly deceiving our eyes. When you watch a Wisconsin game or when a studio analyst breaks down some UW half-court sequences at the intermission, it’s possible that neither of you will remark upon the fact that Gard’s charges recorded hardly any turnovers. Yet that very fact is a significant ingredient in how the sausage gets made in Madison. The Badgers own the lowest turnover rate of any major-conference team in league play, and that allows them to attempt an exceptionally high number of shots.
Shot volume index (SVI)
Conference games only, through Feb. 3: ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC
TO% OR% SVI 1. Iowa 12.0 27.8 101.7 2. St. John's 15.8 34.7 100.6 3. Wisconsin 11.6 24.1 100.4 4. UConn 17.4 37.7 100.1 5. Syracuse 16.0 33.9 100.0
Wisconsin’s offensive rebounding is well below the major-conference average, but it’s still in the ballpark of normalcy. Conversely, Minnesota is achieving the same incredible results as the Badgers in the area of near-zero-turnover ball, but the Golden Gophers are getting significantly less bang for their shot-volume buck due to an extreme lack of second chances.
TO% OR% SVI 18. Minnesota 11.7 20.0 98.2
Ben Johnson is a coach to watch. Posting a turnover rate that’s microscopic even by Big Ten standards in one’s first season at the helm is highly impressive. The Gophers are virtually powerless to stop opposing offenses, particularly in the paint, but by following in the footsteps of Bo Ryan and John Beilein they’re doing the best they can with what they have.
At the other end of the shot volume scale, we find no shortage of teams that will likely make the 2022 NCAA tournament.
TO% OR% SVI 68. Stanford 23.0 31.9 90.8 69. Iowa State 20.9 25.7 90.5 70. LSU 23.8 32.9 90.3 71. Creighton 22.8 29.8 90.1 72. TCU 25.2 34.6 89.3 73. Vanderbilt 20.6 22.0 89.2 74. Oklahoma 23.3 27.9 88.7 75. Georgia 22.1 24.4 88.6 76. Ole Miss 23.1 26.4 88.3
TCU’s turnover rate in particular is remarkable coming from a good team. As it happens Jamie Dixon’s bunch is right at the Big 12 average for two-point accuracy, they just never get the chance to actually shoot. It’s conceivable that no team in the field of 68 will be more dependent on its outstanding defensive rebounding to the exclusion of all else than the Horned Frogs.
At least Dixon has plenty of nearby company in his parched Nefud of scoring opportunities. You will read down the shot-volume rankings for a long time before you hit a single Big 12 team.
TO% OR% SVI 35. Kansas State 16.6 26.6 95.8
The Big 12’s carrying a league-wide turnover rate of 20.8 percent this season. You can’t swing a cat at the top of KenPom’s defensive rankings without knocking over several of the league’s teams, but there’s a smidge more feast-or-famine in those figures than one might expect. A somewhat less statistically impressive defense like the one at Kansas, to take one example, is actually holding opponents to fewer points per effective (turnover-less) possession in Big 12 play than the rightly analyzed and lauded Texas Tech D, it’s just that teams facing KU rarely commit turnovers.
One more thing. We would be remiss if we did not acknowledge one or two extreme performances to be found outside the six major conferences.
TO% OR% SVI Houston 16.8 38.9 101.4 San Francisco 15.8 32.3 99.5
Kelvin Sampson is shot volume Yoda.
San Francisco reportedly goes into each game intending to post a turnover rate under 16 percent and an offensive rebound rate over 33 percent. Well, mission accomplished. That 99.5 bottom line for shot volume is equivalent to what the Dons would get at 16 and 33. Well done, USF.
Here’s how every major-conference team rates out for shot volume, complete with pithy group labels at plus and minus one standard deviation:
Shot volume index (SVI)
Conference games only, through Feb. 2: ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC
Gluttonous TO% OR% SVI 1. Iowa 12.0 27.8 101.7 2. St. John's 15.8 34.7 100.6 3. Wisconsin 11.6 24.1 100.4 4. UConn 17.4 37.7 100.1 5. Syracuse 16.0 33.9 100.0 6. NC State 14.9 31.0 99.9 7. Illinois 15.7 32.6 99.7 8. USC 16.9 35.6 99.7 9. North Carolina 15.5 31.2 99.3 10. Xavier 13.6 26.0 99.0 11. Purdue 16.6 33.3 99.0 12. Alabama 18.0 36.5 98.8 13. Villanova 15.4 29.8 98.7 14. UCLA 14.0 26.4 98.7 Normal TO% OR% SVI 15. Mississippi State 18.1 36.4 98.6 16. Virginia 16.0 30.5 98.4 17. Northwestern 15.0 28.0 98.4 18. Minnesota 11.7 20.0 98.2 19. Michigan 16.3 30.6 98.1 20. Auburn 17.4 33.2 98.0 21. Duke 17.8 33.8 97.8 22. Kentucky 16.6 30.2 97.5 23. Miami 13.1 21.7 97.5 24. Arizona 19.3 36.8 97.4 25. Oregon 17.1 30.4 97.0 26. Boston College 16.6 29.0 97.0 27. Florida State 17.4 30.5 96.7 28. Indiana 15.4 25.5 96.7 29. Seton Hall 19.0 34.3 96.6 30. Ohio State 17.3 29.8 96.5 31. Providence 17.6 30.5 96.5 32. Washington State 19.3 34.8 96.5 33. Oregon State 18.5 31.9 96.1 34. Washington 17.0 27.6 95.9 35. Kansas State 16.6 26.6 95.8 36. Notre Dame 13.9 19.3 95.4 37. Louisville 16.1 24.3 95.3 (average) 38. Clemson 17.2 26.7 95.2 39. Georgetown 19.8 33.3 95.2 40. Maryland 16.9 25.8 95.1 41. Penn State 18.9 30.3 94.9 42. Texas A&M 20.1 33.4 94.9 43. Texas Tech 18.4 28.8 94.8 44. Butler 17.1 25.3 94.7 45. Virginia Tech 18.5 28.7 94.6 46. Kansas 21.8 37.2 94.5 47. Arkansas 19.7 31.4 94.4 48. DePaul 19.9 31.6 94.3 49. Oklahoma State 19.4 29.9 94.1 50. Baylor 21.9 36.1 93.9 51. Cal 17.2 23.8 93.9 52. Michigan State 20.2 31.1 93.7 53. Marquette 16.9 22.6 93.6 54. Rutgers 19.6 29.2 93.6 55. Pitt 20.4 31.2 93.5 56. Texas 20.3 30.4 93.3 57. Florida 20.9 31.4 93.0 58. Wake Forest 19.4 27.1 92.9 59. Arizona State 17.9 23.1 92.7 60. Georgia Tech 17.5 22.0 92.7 61. West Virginia 20.5 29.4 92.6 62. South Carolina 22.0 32.6 92.3 Starving TO% OR% SVI 63. Tennessee 22.0 32.1 92.0 64. Missouri 21.2 29.5 91.8 65. Utah 21.1 29.0 91.7 66. Nebraska 17.6 19.9 91.6 67. Colorado 21.1 26.9 90.8 68. Stanford 23.0 31.9 90.8 69. Iowa State 20.9 25.7 90.5 70. LSU 23.8 32.9 90.3 71. Creighton 22.8 29.8 90.1 72. TCU 25.2 34.6 89.3 73. Vanderbilt 20.6 22.0 89.2 74. Oklahoma 23.3 27.9 88.7 75. Georgia 22.1 24.4 88.6 76. Ole Miss 23.1 26.4 88.3 AVG 18.2 29.5 95.3
Let’s revisit this stuff in the past tense during Champ Week and see where we landed. See you then.
John Gasaway 