Welcome to the season’s first installment of Tuesday Truths, where I look at how well 120 teams in the nation’s top 10 conferences are doing against their league opponents on a per-possession basis.
Why Jefferson matters
Not a happy tableau if you’re a Duke fan. (Newsobserver.com)
Through games of January 9, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession Opp. PPP: opponent PPP
EM: efficiency margin (PPP – Opp. PPP)
ACC W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Duke 2-1 75.3 1.23 1.01 +0.22 2. North Carolina 2-1 77.5 1.07 0.90 +0.17 3. Florida State 3-0 70.8 1.14 0.98 +0.16 4. Notre Dame 3-0 64.9 1.13 1.07 +0.06 5. Syracuse 2-1 65.2 1.16 1.11 +0.05 6. Virginia 2-2 61.4 1.08 1.04 +0.04 7. Miami 1-1 63.5 1.07 1.05 +0.02 8. Louisville 1-2 64.4 0.97 0.97 0.00 9. Pitt 1-2 62.3 1.14 1.14 0.00 10. Clemson 1-2 67.5 1.09 1.10 -0.01 11. Boston College 1-2 76.3 1.07 1.11 -0.04 12. Wake Forest 1-3 70.0 1.00 1.09 -0.09 13. Virginia Tech 1-2 77.5 1.05 1.17 -0.12 14. NC State 1-2 78.4 0.95 1.13 -0.18 15. Georgia Tech 1-2 70.7 0.86 1.12 -0.26 AVG. 69.7 1.07 Acceleration since 2015: 10.3% KenPom rank: 2 % of games played: 17
Duke plays at Florida State tonight, and the Blue Devils will contest the issue in Tallahassee without the two guys that I, personally, would rank 1-2 in terms of importance, even above Luke Kennard or Grayson Allen. Those absent guys are: 1) Mike Krzyzewski; and 2) Amile Jefferson.
Coach K’s recuperating from back surgery, and Jefferson suffered a bone bruise in his right foot in the first half of Duke’s win over Boston College on Saturday. The timeline for the senior’s return is unclear. Maybe he’ll miss only a game or two, in which case this matter will be long forgotten come March.
Any absence longer than that for Jefferson, however, is worrisome for the Blue Devil faithful. Jefferson’s far from the highest-rated draft prospect on this roster, but it just so happens he does things that no one else in a Duke uniform can do as well (or, at least, that no one else has previously done as well).
Last year in ACC play, Duke’s offensive rebounding fell off a cliff and its two-point defense deteriorated noticeably relative to what we’d seen in both departments from the nascent national champions in league play in 2015.
Conference games only
OR% Opp. 2FG%
2016 29.4 49.8
2015 36.9 47.4
Jefferson missed the entire conference season last year with an injury in the same foot that’s the object of concern in 2017. Obviously his absence alone didn’t cause the Blue Devils’ drop in performance (losing Jahlil Okafor will cost you some offensive boards), but his availability in 2016 would have helped Duke precisely where it needed help the most.
As for the here and now, the jury’s still out on what brand of dominance — occasional, frequent or total — Harry Giles can offer on the offensive glass within the exceedingly narrow window afforded by his college career. His performance in this respect is likely to come down to sheer minutes more than ability, for he plainly has the latter in abundance. Giles is a pretty good Plan B to have on hand, surely, but the best-case scenario for Jeff Capel involves getting both his boss and his senior back sooner rather than later.
BONUS salute to the Seminoles! Florida State’s undefeated in league play despite the fact that its conference opponents have shot 44 percent on their 3s. Leonard Hamilton’s men have just been too tough to care. Should be a good one this evening.
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We may need a national “West Virginia’s Offense is Even Better Than its Defense” day
Esa Ahmad’s minutes and possessions are too scarce to be a “star,” but he’s really good at college basketball.
Big 12 W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Baylor 3-0 62.3 1.08 0.91 +0.17 2. West Virginia 2-1 67.6 1.18 1.05 +0.13 3. Kansas 3-0 71.1 1.22 1.11 +0.11 4. Iowa State 2-1 65.7 1.04 0.97 +0.07 5. Kansas State 2-1 68.2 1.11 1.06 +0.05 6. Texas 1-2 70.7 1.01 1.05 -0.04 7. TCU 1-2 70.2 1.00 1.07 -0.07 8. Oklahoma State 0-3 68.6 1.03 1.14 -0.11 9. Texas Tech 1-2 63.3 1.02 1.13 -0.11 10. Oklahoma 0-3 65.5 0.87 1.07 -0.20 AVG. 67.3 1.06 Acceleration since 2015: 3.9% KenPom rank: 1 % of games played: 17
The West Virginia offense needs a cool nickname like “Press Virginia,” because there’s a good chance it will turn out to be even better than the Mountaineer defense. “Mountain o’ Points,” say, or “Death by Volume.” Hey, I’m just spit-balling here. You come up with something.
Bob Huggins’ defense garnered all the praise in the non-conference season, and, sure, an opponent turnover rate above 30 percent will do that. But said turnover rate is already correcting toward normalcy in conference play: WVU’s Big 12 opponents have given the ball away on “just” (ha) 24 percent of their possessions. That’s actually the same rate we’ve seen so far from the hitherto stoically un-nicknamed Iowa State defense. (‘Clone Wars! Ready, Ames, Fire! Fine, I’ll stop.)
Conversely this WVU offense is showing signs of being able to sustain its impressive numbers even when confronted with feisty programmatic equals. I won’t pester you with an SVI figure based on three games, just know that if the Mountaineers’ percentages hang around 40 on the offensive glass and 16 for turnovers you’ll be looking at a veritable wall of shot attempts.
Confusion will then reign supreme, announcers and fans will continue to try to make sense of this offense episodically rather than cumulatively and, most of all, the defense will still get all the attention. On the plus side, however, Esa Ahmad may get more possessions. Show him the love, Coach!
BONUS salute to Baylor! West Virginia hosts the Bears in Morgantown this evening, and, while I’m on the record as expecting that Scott Drew’s team is about to confront the shock and sorrow that comes from “losing a basketball game” as the young people like to say, the scale of the BU 2017 miracle will remain prodigious even when such an event comes to pass. Baylor’s going to have to work really hard to fall out of anything worse than a No. 2 seed, and a Big 12 whose worst team may be an Oklahoma or a Texas just doesn’t offer enough bad losses to make that happen. Not bad for a group that received zero votes in the preseason AP poll.
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The most extraordinary collection of shooting talent that has ever been gathered, with the exception of when Stephen Curry dines alone
Kevin Willard is riled because connecting on 54 percent of your twos and 43 percent of your threes makes you merely the fourth-best shooting team in this stupid league. (nj.com)
Big East W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Xavier 3-0 71.2 1.22 1.00 +0.22 2. Butler 3-1 66.3 1.10 0.99 +0.11 3. Creighton 3-1 69.2 1.16 1.05 +0.11 4. Seton Hall 2-1 71.1 1.08 0.99 +0.09 5. Villanova 3-1 64.3 1.16 1.10 +0.06 6. Georgetown 1-4 71.1 1.02 1.02 0.00 7. Marquette 1-2 67.5 1.10 1.13 -0.03 8. St. John's 2-3 73.3 0.99 1.12 -0.13 9. Providence 1-3 65.9 0.97 1.17 -0.20 10. DePaul 0-3 67.9 0.95 1.15 -0.20 AVG. 68.8 1.09 Acceleration since 2015: 6.4% KenPom rank: 3 % of games played: 20
In conference play the Big East is making better than 52 percent of its twos and 35 percent of its threes. That nets out to an effective FG percentage of 52.7, which is better than what top-25 types like North Carolina or Arizona have recorded on the season as a whole. And, again, this is coming from a collective of 10 teams, one of which is DePaul (har!).
Maybe this state of affairs is partly attributable to bad defense, short defenders, the calendar (see today’s Tuesday Truths title), or all of the above. That being said, a league that numbers among its members Creighton (shooting 64 percent on its twos and, curiously, just 31 percent on threes in league play), Xavier (59 and 40), Butler (52 and 37), the aforementioned Pirates, and, yes, the defending national champions (65 and 37) is indeed going to make some shots.
A couple weeks ago, I said this about Jay Wright’s team:
Villanova is in the midst of the greatest multi-season run of shooting recorded by any major-conference team in almost a decade. Since 2005-06, just seven percent of all major-conference teams have posted effective field-goal percentages of 54 or better in league play. Yet the Wildcats have now done exactly that in each of the last three conference seasons. The only other team to have matched that level of shooting prowess over a three-year period was Kansas before, during and (most incredibly) after its national championship run in 2008.
I suppose there’s a chance the rest of the Big East got Wright’s memo. That would be the sincerest form of flattery, no doubt. Anyway, if you associate made shots with “quality of play,” I highly recommend tonight’s Xavier-Villanova game.
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The Big Ten exists in 2017 to sow evaluative chaos
Laptops are favorably impressed by both Wisconsin and Purdue. Bracketologists? Less so. (purduesports.com)
Big Ten W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Maryland 2-1 67.9 1.11 0.96 +0.15 2. Michigan State 3-1 69.4 1.02 0.92 +0.10 3. Purdue 3-1 71.7 1.06 0.97 +0.09 4. Wisconsin 2-1 63.3 1.06 0.98 +0.08 5. Minnesota 3-1 69.9 1.05 0.98 +0.07 6. Penn State 2-2 71.2 0.98 0.95 +0.03 7. Indiana 1-2 67.0 1.23 1.20 +0.03 8. Northwestern 2-2 65.8 1.06 1.04 +0.02 9. Nebraska 3-1 68.2 1.08 1.08 0.00 10. Michigan 1-2 63.2 1.14 1.17 -0.03 11. Iowa 2-2 70.6 1.01 1.06 -0.05 12. Ohio State 0-3 71.2 1.00 1.07 -0.07 13. Illinois 1-2 69.2 1.03 1.20 -0.17 14. Rutgers 0-4 70.2 0.81 1.04 -0.23 AVG. 68.5 1.05 Acceleration since 2015: 10.0% KenPom rank: 4 % of games played: 20
There will be a “no great teams” narrative woven around the Big Ten this season, a yarn that will have the condign virtues of being: a) pretty much true — Wisconsin 2015 or even Michigan State 2016 ain’t walking through that door; and b) self-reinforcing. Where there are no great teams there are no “great” wins.
But before we all sally forth down said cognitive path, let’s at least acknowledge how we got here. The Indiana “Slayers of Kansas and North Carolina” Hoosiers were supposed to be the league’s poster child for great wins. Then Tom Crean’s guys ripped open that Fort Wayne wound anew by losing four times in six tries, and here we are.
Meanwhile Purdue and Wisconsin may turn out to be good at the sport this season, but you can search those resumes in vain for a proverbial good win. The best the Boilermakers have is perhaps a neutral-court victory over Notre Dame, while the Badgers will have to hope that IU can rally and add some after-the-fact luster to the win Greg Gard’s men recorded in Bloomington.
This lack of notches in their respective belts is what’s landing both the Boilers and Wisconsin on the No. 6 line in the mocks. Remarkably, the highest mock seed the Big Ten can currently boast of is the spot on the No. 5 line being envisioned for Minnesota. No great teams, indeed.
BONUS salute to evaluative chaos! Before Indiana got off the conference schneid and recorded its first Big Ten win at home against Illinois, the Hoosiers were being ranked in the 130s by the three-letter antique. What a beautiful illustration of the evaluative fossil’s total and debilitating obsession with schedule to the near-total exclusion of performance. My fondest wish is that someday soon Coach K or John Calipari will fill his nonconference schedule exclusively with SWAC and MEAC opponents, show up suitably and shockingly low in the antique, and thus accelerate the what-should-we-do-instead discussion that, to its credit, the NCAA does appear to be having at long last.
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Meet your Big Three for 2017
Lauri Markkanen just knows how to Finnish. (AP)
Pac-12 W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Oregon 4-0 69.7 1.22 0.99 +0.23 2. Arizona 4-0 68.7 1.11 0.88 +0.23 3. UCLA 3-1 72.6 1.15 1.03 +0.12 4. Utah 2-1 69.9 1.05 0.99 +0.06 5. Cal 2-2 69.1 1.04 1.03 +0.01 6. Washington State 2-1 66.3 1.11 1.11 0.00 7. USC 2-2 70.3 0.98 0.99 -0.01 8. Washington 1-2 69.1 1.07 1.08 -0.01 9. Arizona State 2-2 71.7 1.13 1.18 -0.05 10. Colorado 0-3 69.2 1.01 1.14 -0.13 11. Oregon State 0-4 64.3 0.97 1.20 -0.23 12. Stanford 0-4 75.2 0.92 1.16 -0.24 AVG. 69.7 1.06 Acceleration since 2015: 6.4% KenPom rank: 6 % of games played: 20
UCLA beat Kentucky at Rupp Arena in one of the most entertaining games I’ve seen this decade, Arizona has experienced near-Duke levels of personnel drama and uncertainty, and Oregon’s best player alternates between getting into salty exchanges with Coach K and (when he’s not shrouded in injury mystery) kicking people.
Basically all three teams have given us ample opportunity to view them as extreme and unique after their own fashions, but I suspect we may find that the Pac-12 this season will be all about the fact that the Bruins, Wildcats and Ducks are all about equally good (i.e., extremely) at basketball. UCLA you already know about, of course, but I’ll only add that Lonzo Ball may yet have more surprises in store. I sense untapped possession-usage splendor and awe just waiting to be let loose.
Meanwhile in Tucson, the Waiting for Trier saga has obscured the fact that Lauri Markkanen may yet turn out to be the best and most effective (speaking future-blind here) freshman in the Pac-12 in the league’s best year for freshmen in a very long time. Lastly, Dana Altman’s guys have opened conference play by doing things in the area of shot volume that even Bob Huggins himself never dreamed were possible.
With all due respect to nine other teams, that’s my working theory of what makes for rollicking good Pac-12 entertainment right there. No, wait, I take that back….
Watch Markelle Fultz for three minutes of real time, see coast-to-coast drive, shot-block, bullet assist. Wish I could see him in March.
— John Gasaway (@JohnGasaway) January 5, 2017
Also, if you want some tasty high-scoring TV, watch the defense that’s already allowed conference opponents to shoot 60 percent on twos but hasn’t even played any of the Big Three yet. Said defense is playing road games in Tucson and Westwood over the next 10 days. There will be points!
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The UK offense is impossible
Extensive analytic research suggests that this is a high-efficiency shot. (kentucky.com)
SEC W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Kentucky 3-0 75.1 1.31 0.91 +0.40 2. Florida 3-0 69.4 1.12 0.99 +0.13 3. South Carolina 2-0 66.4 1.10 0.97 +0.13 4. Vanderbilt 2-1 69.1 1.12 1.01 +0.11 5. Alabama 2-0 66.4 0.96 0.86 +0.10 6. Georgia 2-1 75.0 1.01 0.96 +0.05 7. Mississippi State 1-1 73.2 1.04 1.00 +0.04 8. Tennessee 1-2 66.4 1.04 1.07 -0.03 9. LSU 1-2 76.0 1.12 1.18 -0.06 10. Missouri 0-2 80.4 0.89 0.99 -0.10 11. Ole Miss 1-2 74.9 1.01 1.13 -0.12 12. Arkansas 1-2 72.4 1.04 1.18 -0.14 13. Auburn 0-3 75.4 1.02 1.17 -0.15 14. Texas A&M 0-3 69.5 0.91 1.21 -0.30 AVG. 72.5 1.05 Acceleration since 2015: 13.1% KenPom rank: 5 % of games played: 15
Kentucky’s number for points per possession in SEC play will regress toward Earth, so let’s enjoy it now in all its absurdity.
And while we’re on the topic of regression, there may at some point be smug tut-tutting to the effect that the Wildcats can’t possibly go on shooting lights-out like this forever. Well, don’t be so sure. UK’s shooting from the field may be one of the most normal things about this team. Throw a stick at the Big East (see above) and you’ll hit multiple offenses that are shooting even more accurately in conference play.
But when you combine a Bo Ryan turnover rate (11.5 percent) with standard-issue Kentucky beastliness on the offensive glass, you have sufficient elasticity to survive an occasional off shooting night. Even in Caliparian terms, De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk are doing things I’m not sure we knew freshmen could do.
BONUS salute to the 30-second clock! The SEC is way, way faster than it used to be. So profound is the transformation that this will continue to be true even when Missouri is no longer averaging 80 possessions per game.
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The Game of the Year of the week is almost here
American W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. SMU 4-0 61.4 1.20 0.93 +0.27 2. Cincinnati 3-0 69.6 1.03 0.79 +0.24 3. Memphis 2-1 67.3 1.01 0.88 +0.13 4. Houston 3-1 61.4 1.03 0.94 +0.09 5. UCF 3-1 68.9 0.94 0.85 +0.09 6. Tulsa 1-1 60.0 0.96 0.96 0.00 7. Connecticut 1-3 60.5 0.92 0.97 -0.05 8. Temple 1-3 68.4 0.91 1.00 -0.09 9. East Carolina 1-3 65.8 0.80 0.96 -0.16 10. South Florida 0-3 64.6 0.88 1.10 -0.22 11. Tulane 0-3 74.0 0.84 1.16 -0.32 AVG. 65.6 0.96 KenPom rank: 7 % of games played: 19
SMU and Cincinnati are the two best teams in the American, and they’ll collide Thursday night when the Mustangs visit Fifth Third Arena. I continue to be intrigued by the Bearcats’ combination of size (per usual) and shot-making (take a bow, Jacob Evans), while the Ponies are adept at nullifying trifling and quotidian concerns like “shots going in” and even “defense” with state-of-the art offensive rebounding. Tune in.
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A tribute to extreme Spiders
A-10 W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Rhode Island 2-1 67.1 1.20 0.90 +0.30 2. VCU 3-0 74.5 1.11 0.96 +0.15 3. Dayton 3-0 69.3 1.07 0.93 +0.14 4. La Salle 2-1 64.0 1.07 0.98 +0.09 5. Richmond 3-0 67.9 1.17 1.09 +0.08 6. St. Bonaventure 2-1 74.2 1.10 1.07 +0.03 7. Davidson 1-2 68.2 1.10 1.08 +0.02 8. George Washington 1-2 65.6 1.05 1.09 -0.04 9. Saint Joseph's 2-1 66.3 0.99 1.04 -0.05 10. Duquesne 1-2 74.5 1.09 1.14 -0.05 11. George Mason 1-2 73.3 1.01 1.07 -0.06 12. Fordham 0-3 69.6 0.95 1.08 -0.13 13. UMass 0-3 75.3 0.98 1.13 -0.15 14. Saint Louis 0-3 65.0 0.90 1.24 -0.34 AVG. 69.9 1.06 KenPom rank: 8 % of games played: 17
Chris Mooney’s long been a skeptic where offensive rebounds are concerned, but with luck this season Richmond might give us the perfect Euclidean test case on the matter once and for all. In the Spiders’ first three A-10 games they’ve pulled in just 14.5 percent of their misses, a figure so low it’s actually hard to accomplish. (If the other team tries to get a defensive rebound and the ball accidentally goes out of bounds, that’s credited to you as an offensive board. Presumably Mooney would go ballistic.) Meanwhile Richmond’s shooting incredibly well and also taking excellent care of the ball, giving us a near-ideal alignment of the evaluative stars. What is the true cost of a total offensive rebounding ban? Answers may be forthcoming. Go, Spiders, go. Keep those arms at your sides.
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Shockers doing Shocker things
Missouri Valley W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Wichita State 4-0 71.6 1.22 0.94 +0.28 2. Illinois State 4-0 64.9 1.10 0.89 +0.21 3. Southern Illinois 3-1 67.5 1.04 0.97 +0.07 4. Loyola 2-2 69.6 1.12 1.12 0.00 5. Missouri State 2-2 65.7 1.03 1.03 0.00 6. Drake 2-2 75.2 1.08 1.15 -0.07 7. Evansville 1-3 69.7 0.93 1.01 -0.08 8. Bradley 2-2 67.6 0.97 1.08 -0.11 9. Indiana State 0-4 66.7 0.98 1.12 -0.14 10. Northern Iowa 0-4 67.4 0.94 1.09 -0.15 AVG. 68.6 1.04 KenPom rank: 10 % of games played: 22
Wichita State lost at home to Oklahoma State by 17 in December, a result that seems to have spooked the pollsters into burying Gregg Marshall’s guys way down in the “also receiving votes” fine print. I point this out because the Shockers are in the habit of registering more or less the same per-possession results in Missouri Valley play annually, and may do so again in 2017. If so I will spend portions of my fourth consecutive March sounding the “Very nearly as good as when they got a No. 1 seed!” alarm. It has become a rite of spring. However, first WSU must navigate its way safely past a road test at Illinois State this Saturday evening (8 ET, ESPN2).
BONUS rubble-sifting! Things have not gone particularly well in Cedar Falls since the last minute in regulation in the last game of last season.
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The serenity of a constant backdrop
West Coast W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Gonzaga 3-0 72.8 1.23 0.93 +0.30 2. Saint Mary's 4-0 62.5 1.15 0.96 +0.19 3. BYU 3-1 70.1 1.17 0.99 +0.18 4. Santa Clara 2-2 64.7 0.99 0.99 0.00 5. Loyola Marymount 1-3 67.9 1.00 1.03 -0.03 6. San Diego 1-3 65.5 1.00 1.05 -0.05 7. Portland 2-1 62.9 1.03 1.09 -0.06 8. San Francisco 1-3 66.7 1.01 1.14 -0.13 9. Pepperdine 1-3 68.7 0.95 1.13 -0.18 10. Pacific 1-3 67.9 0.94 1.12 -0.18 AVG. 62.9 1.05 KenPom rank: 11 % of games played: 21
We have an entire season in front of us to sing the praises of Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s, and/or to monitor the potential of BYU. But what about those seven other teams? Surely it’s notable either that: a) SMC and especially the Zags have achieved programmatic escape velocity from within the WCC (the Cougars already had it when they joined up), or that: b) nothing much ever changes in or spills over into the rest of the league. Quick, what’s the best non-Spokane, non-Moraga, non-Provo team the conference has produced in the last decade? Santa Clara in 2013? Portland in 2010? It’s been a long time since the Toreros shocked A.J. Price and Jeff Adrien.
John Gasaway 