He looks like you look when you’re trying to look relaxed.
Events move fast this time of year. Seven days ago I was patiently building an airtight and irrefutable case for why I would not pick likely No. 8 or 9 seed Wichita State in a round of 32 game against a No. 1 seed. Now the Shockers are said to be in danger of falling out of the field entirely. It’s like I’ve been preparing to defend Aqaba, but now the invaders have come from the land instead of the sea.
The plight faced by Gregg Marshall’s team will rightly be discussed from now until Sunday. Here are three more thoughts to toss into that mix.
The mock bracket confusion triggered by Wichita State is extreme but not unprecedented
It’s true that some name-brand bracketologists have the Shockers out of the field entirely, while others have them as a No. 7 seed. That’s unusual, to say the least. Still, it turns out that past mock brackets have disagreed even more sharply on other teams.
Thanks to the indispensable Bracket Matrix, we can pull up past brackets not just from Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm but also from pretty much any reputable provider who’s ever bothered to post one online. And if you had to single out one team as the most analytically disruptive tournament candidate of the last decade you could do worse than NC State in 2014. In fact it’s likely the Wolfpack’s record can never be broken in any decade.
I won’t bother putting Mark Gottfried’s team and their off-the-charts number for mock seeding variance in my nifty little table. Suffice it to say the committee created that statistical monster out of nowhere by giving NC State a bid. If the committee does the same thing this year and hands a bid to a team that’s on just two percent of the mocks sampled, we’ll have a new champion for evaluative dissonance. Dream large, Washington Huskies.
Conversely, Wichita State this season falls within the mainstream of conventionally confusing outliers from past years….
Highest Evaluative Fracas Factors (EFF), 2012-16
Standard deviation in mock seeds
EFF
Saint Mary's 2013 1.55
Middle Tennessee 2013 1.54
VCU 2012 1.40
Gonzaga 2014 1.39
Belmont 2013 1.39
Wichita State 2016 1.38
Of course it could be the case that the people making mock brackets are just better at forging a consensus now than they used to be. (After all, 2015’s a no-show on this list.) By the same token past teams’ EFFs are written in stone, while Wichita State’s is a moving target. For all we know the Shockers’ number will go up over the next five days. With reference to both possibilities, then, it’s worth noting that as of this morning teams like Saint Mary’s (1.34) and Oregon State (1.27) are fairly close to Marshall’s guys when it comes to triggering evaluative dissent.
That being said, the Middle Tennessee precedent from 2013 may be particularly instructive. Indeed in terms of the relatively small percentage of mocks that had them in the field (60), you can make a case that the Blue Raiders were even more controversial and Trumpier than the present-day Shockers (80).
The Shockers would not be my first choice as a poster child for reality-based metrics
For reasons set forth last week, I’m rather less bullish than my laptop is on Wichita State’s ability to make a deep run in the field of 68. More specifically I can envision a scenario wherein the Shockers do slip into the tournament somewhere around the 11 line, get trounced by an otherwise unprepossessing No. 6 seed like Baylor or Texas, and therefore elicit a loud and lusty chorus along the lines of “Where’s your fancy metric now, pal?”
If I’m to be subjected to such a chorus, I’d much rather barricade myself in a box canyon with a team that didn’t lose at Illinois State and whose defense isn’t strengthened statistically by its league’s fanatical disavowal of offensive rebounds. (I keep highlighting that second factor to my laptop, but it’s stubborn.) Give me SMU in 2014 or Drexel in 2012, and come in and get me.
If Wichita State does sneak in around the 11 line, maybe Marshall planned this all along
The life expectancy of the Shockers in the brackets could be much longer as a No. 11 seed potentially facing a No. 3 in the round of 32 than it would be as a No. 8 or 9 slated to collide with a top seed. Just to touch a few familiar bases here, teams seeded on the 8 and 9 lines are 5-35 in the round of 32 the past 10 years. Over that same span no fewer than 22 double-digit seeds have reached the Sweet 16. Slipping in as one of the last teams in the field isn’t the worst thing that can happen to an at-large beloved of laptops.
Welcome to Tuesday Truths, where I look at how well 55 mid-majors did against their league opponents on a per-possession basis.
Major-conference Truths are at ESPN Insider.
Hooray for actual standings (continued)
Through games of March 6, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession
EM: efficiency margin (PPP – Opp. PPP)
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. VCU 14-4 69.6 1.11 0.96 +0.15 2. Saint Joseph's 13-5 70.6 1.12 0.99 +0.13 3. Dayton 14-4 67.9 1.06 0.95 +0.11 4. George Washington 11-7 66.6 1.10 1.02 +0.08 5. St. Bonaventure 14-4 69.1 1.14 1.07 +0.07 6. Rhode Island 9-9 64.8 1.06 1.00 +0.06 7. Davidson 10-8 69.8 1.13 1.11 +0.02 8. Richmond 7-11 67.8 1.10 1.10 0.00 9. Duquesne 6-12 73.4 1.04 1.08 -0.04 10. Fordham 8-10 66.6 1.00 1.07 -0.07 11. UMass 6-12 70.7 0.97 1.05 -0.08 12. George Mason 5-13 69.2 0.99 1.10 -0.11 13. Saint Louis 5-13 69.9 0.93 1.06 -0.13 14. La Salle 4-14 66.1 0.93 1.11 -0.18 AVG. 68.7 1.05 KenPom rank: 8 % of games played: 100
After a regular season filled with a good deal of murk and confusion, the A-10 at-large contingent seems to have formed up rather nicely. Dayton should lead the way with a spot somewhere around the No. 6 line, followed by Saint Joseph’s at No. 8, St. Bonaventure at 10, and VCU at 11. Those four teams finished at the top of the standings — huzzah for “just win your games.” On paper the Rams give the appearance of an under-seeding about to happen, but to meet that expectation it will help if Will Wade can get Melvin Johnson going from outside. The senior has hit just four of his last 19 tries from beyond the arc.
CAA: There can be only one “hot” coach from a one-bid league
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. James Madison 11-7 67.5 1.06 0.98 +0.08 2. Hofstra 14-4 68.9 1.10 1.02 +0.08 3. UNC Wilmington 14-4 68.7 1.09 1.03 +0.06 4. William & Mary 11-7 68.2 1.13 1.08 +0.05 5. Coll. of Charleston 8-10 62.0 0.96 0.94 +0.02 6. Towson 11-7 66.1 1.06 1.04 +0.02 7. Northeastern 9-9 64.7 1.04 1.05 -0.01 8. Elon 7-11 69.9 1.04 1.07 -0.03 9. Drexel 3-15 64.8 0.96 1.09 -0.13 10. Delaware 2-16 67.6 0.98 1.15 -0.17 AVG. 66.9 1.04 KenPom rank: 9 % of games played: 100
Congratulations to UNC Wilmington, dancing for the first time since 2006. In the CAA tournament title game the Seahawks prevailed 80-73 in overtime against Hofstra, thanks to a 56-point combined performance by Craig Ponder, Chris Flemmings, and Denzel Ingram.
UNCW’s showing up on the No. 13 line in the mocks, and Kevin Keatts’ team can definitely give a No. 4 seed a game. As indicated by the numbers here, I would be saying the same of the Pride or, for that matter, James Madison if they were in the identical slot in the brackets. Nevertheless it has fallen to former Louisville assistant Keatts to take a shot, if he wishes, at following in the footsteps of Wilmington predecessors like Jerry Wainwright and Brad Brownell and moving on to the next gig. Meantime if your team draws the Seahawks in the bracket, tell your coach to go strong on the offensive glass. In CAA play UNCW was the league’s worst defensive rebounding team by a mile.
Valley: Hear the Panthers roar
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Wichita State 16-2 66.5 1.14 0.86 +0.28 2. Northern Iowa 11-7 61.8 1.05 0.96 +0.09 3. Evansville 12-6 68.4 1.02 0.94 +0.08 4. Illinois State 12-6 65.9 1.04 0.97 +0.07 5. Southern Illinois 11-7 68.7 1.02 1.02 0.00 6. Loyola 7-11 64.6 0.96 0.99 -0.03 7. Indiana State 8-10 69.7 0.97 1.01 -0.04 8. Missouri State 8-10 68.6 0.96 1.04 -0.08 9. Drake 2-16 65.9 0.95 1.10 -0.15 10. Bradley 3-15 66.7 0.82 1.04 -0.22 AVG. 66.7 0.99 KenPom rank: 12 % of games played: 100
Northern Iowa has now won 11 of its last 12 games, a run made up in part of Maryland-in-2015-style close-game magic. Each of the Panthers’ last four games have been in doubt in the 40th minute and Ben Jacobson’s guys have emerged from that festival of clutchhood 4-0. Your team of destiny awaits your support.
By the way, your team of destiny’s really good at defense. While Wes Washpun’s getting the well-deserved March love for his point-guard prowess, his taller teammates held opponents to under 44 percent shooting inside the arc over UNI’s last 10 regular-season games.
Mountain West: Keep going, Aztecs
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. San Diego State 16-2 65.7 1.06 0.90 +0.16 2. Boise State 11-7 70.8 1.07 0.99 +0.08 3. Fresno State 13-5 69.1 1.05 1.01 +0.04 4. New Mexico 10-8 71.5 1.06 1.03 +0.03 5. UNLV 8-10 74.3 1.01 1.00 +0.01 6. Nevada 10-8 72.7 0.97 0.98 -0.01 7. Utah State 7-11 68.2 1.08 1.09 -0.01 8. Colorado State 8-10 69.0 1.09 1.11 -0.02 9. Wyoming 7-11 65.9 1.05 1.08 -0.03 10. San Jose State 4-14 69.0 0.96 1.05 -0.09 11. Air Force 5-13 67.3 0.95 1.09 -0.14 AVG. 69.4 1.03 KenPom rank: 10 % of games played: 100
San Diego State doesn’t have the luxury of counting on an at-large. Stranger things have happened, but for the Aztecs to reach their seventh consecutive NCAA tournament they may have to win the MWC auto-bid this week in Las Vegas. Yes, the event’s being contested on UNLV’s home floor, and, yes, the Rebels are on the other side of the bracket from SDSU. If Steve Fisher’s team does make it to the field of 68, they have the ability (per usual) to embroil any opponent up to including Kansas or Michigan State in a low-scoring rock fight.
WCC: Zags vs. Gaels
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Gonzaga 15-3 67.8 1.20 0.98 +0.22 2. Saint Mary's 15-3 62.4 1.16 0.99 +0.17 3. BYU 13-5 73.5 1.14 0.97 +0.17 4. Pepperdine 10-8 67.5 1.07 1.06 +0.01 5. San Francisco 8-10 72.4 1.08 1.13 -0.05 6. Portland 6-12 72.0 1.09 1.14 -0.05 7. Pacific 6-12 67.0 1.00 1.07 -0.07 8. Loyola Marymount 6-12 67.7 1.02 1.13 -0.11 9. Santa Clara 7-11 66.7 1.03 1.15 -0.12 10. San Diego 4-14 67.2 0.91 1.08 -0.17 AVG. 68.4 1.07 KenPom rank: 11 % of games played: 100
Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s will play tonight in Las Vegas in the WCC title game. Neither team can count on an at-large bid if they lose (though it certainly could happen). Either could outscore a higher-seeded NCAA tournament opponent if they do get in. The Gaels won the two previous meetings by a combined total of eight points. Kyle Wiltjer’s coming off a 29-point effort for the Bulldogs against BYU. For its part SMC tends to be more balanced. Enjoy the show: 9 ET on my favorite channel.
John Gasaway 