On this date in 1913, Jim Thorpe was forced to relinquish the two gold medals he’d won at the 1912 Olympic Games in Stockholm. Thorpe turned in the medals after it came to light that he’d previously played semipro baseball in North Carolina. It took 70 years, but his medals were returned, posthumously, in 1983, and the Olympics has long since moved past trying to will into existence an artificial line between amateurism and professionalism. Perhaps there’s a lesson there.
Welcome to Tuesday Truths, where I look at how well 55 mid-majors are doing against their league opponents on a per-possession basis.
Major-conference Truths are at ESPN Insider.
A-10: Snowstorms, 30-hour bus rides, and actual basketball too
Through games of January 25, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession
EM: efficiency margin (PPP – Opp. PPP)
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. VCU 7-0 70.9 1.16 0.94 +0.22 2. Saint Joseph's 5-1 69.9 1.11 0.96 +0.15 3. Dayton 6-1 68.0 1.10 0.96 +0.14 4. Rhode Island 3-3 62.6 1.13 1.03 +0.10 5. George Washington 4-2 66.7 1.09 0.99 +0.10 6. St. Bonaventure 4-3 71.6 1.15 1.09 +0.06 7. Davidson 4-3 72.0 1.13 1.11 +0.02 8. Richmond 2-4 68.8 1.12 1.11 +0.01 9. Duquesne 3-4 74.0 1.01 1.08 -0.07 10. Saint Louis 3-4 70.9 1.03 1.12 -0.09 11. George Mason 1-6 69.7 0.99 1.14 -0.15 12. UMass 1-5 72.5 1.00 1.15 -0.15 13. Fordham 2-5 66.5 0.95 1.11 -0.16 14. La Salle 1-5 64.7 0.93 1.09 -0.16 AVG. 69.2 1.06 KenPom rank: 8 % of games played: 37
No Tuesday Truths league was hit harder by last weekend’s snowstorm than the Atlantic 10. With the exception of a game between Saint Louis and UMass that took place at the Mullins Center in Amherst, the entirety of the conference’s Saturday schedule was wiped out. And, of course, even the games that were moved to Friday afternoon were just the beginning of the story.
You’ve heard about the Duquesne team bus getting stuck in the snow on the Pennsylvania Turnpike as the team tried to make its way back to Pittsburgh after the Dukes’ win at George Mason. Jim Ferry’s men finally made it home after a 30-hour journey that included plenty of movie watching, tweeting, and walk-ons pushing the bus out of the snow. As for Rhode Island, the Rams were fortunate that their game at George Washington took place in close proximity to the most heavily used rail corridor in the U.S.
Boarding the Night Owl headed for Kingston. Thanks to our great partner @Amtrak for the first class hospitality pic.twitter.com/C0f2Wj4bqf
— Rhody MBB (@RhodyMBB) January 23, 2016
In terms of on-the-floor matters, VCU still looks excellent, and this week Will Wade’s team finally popped up in the small print of both major polls. Was it the Rams’ impressive wins at home over pre-odyssey Duquesne and St. Bonaventure that caught the eye of pollsters? Or was it the awesome agenda-setting power of Tuesday Truths? Undoubtedly the former.
CAA: Are the Dukes and the Pride emerging from the pack?
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. James Madison 6-2 67.2 1.08 0.95 +0.13 2. Hofstra 6-2 69.3 1.12 1.00 +0.12 3. UNC Wilmington 6-2 69.2 1.12 1.05 +0.07 4. William & Mary 5-3 66.7 1.12 1.08 +0.04 5. Northeastern 4-4 66.3 1.07 1.06 +0.01 6. Towson 5-3 66.8 1.00 0.99 +0.01 7. Coll. of Charleston 4-4 60.5 1.00 1.00 0.00 8. Elon 3-5 71.5 1.04 1.12 -0.08 9. Drexel 1-7 67.8 0.91 1.05 -0.14 10. Delaware 0-8 68.1 0.97 1.14 -0.17 AVG. 67.3 1.04 KenPom rank: 9 % of games played: 44
It was a good week for James Madison and Hofstra. The Dukes won easily against lower-division foes Drexel (at home) and Elon (on the road), a two-game swing that should have Matt Brady’s team ready for what may be a rather more challenging contest against UNC Wilmington in Harrisonburg. Curiously, JMU is 4-0 on the road in CAA play but just 2-2 at home. Maybe Brady can persuade his players the game’s actually in Wilmington.
As for Hofstra, Joe Mihalich’s guys are coming off a 91-63 drubbing of William & Mary. A 53-point second half did the trick for the Pride, as Rokas Gustys recorded his sixth consecutive double-double (a run that has rather remarkably included back-to-back 20-20 games). With Gustys and Juan’ya Green, Mihalich may have the two best players in the league — but James Madison could have an inside track to the regular-season title, thanks to the Dukes’ OT win at Hofstra 10 days ago.
Lastly, on a Euclidean note, in conference play Charleston has played 484 possessions while both scoring and allowing 485 points.
Valley: The Shockers are ranked once again
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Wichita State 8-0 65.3 1.19 0.88 +0.31 2. Evansville 6-2 68.0 1.04 0.90 +0.14 3. Southern Illinois 7-1 69.1 1.07 0.99 +0.08 4. Indiana State 5-3 70.3 1.02 0.97 +0.05 5. Northern Iowa 2-6 61.8 1.03 1.01 +0.02 6. Illinois State 5-3 66.3 0.99 0.98 +0.01 7. Loyola 2-6 63.6 0.91 0.96 -0.05 8. Missouri State 4-4 66.1 0.95 1.01 -0.06 9. Drake 0-8 66.5 0.93 1.13 -0.20 10. Bradley 1-7 65.3 0.73 1.06 -0.33 AVG. 66.2 0.99 KenPom rank: 11 % of games played: 44
Wichita State finally reappeared in the top 25 this week, which, to say the very least, is entirely appropriate for a team outscoring a Tuesday Truths league by 0.30 points per trip or more. Are the Shockers really this good, or is Gregg Marshall’s team getting a boost from having already played three games against the Bradley-Drake Institute for Better Opponent Stats? A little of both, I dare say.
By comparison, here are WSU’s efficiency margins as well as the Valley’s KenPom ratings for the current season and the previous four:
MVC
EM KenPom Result(s)
2016 +0.31 .5337 Invent time travel and report back to me
2015 +0.25 .5823 17-1, No. 7 seed, lost to Notre Dame in Sweet 16
2014 +0.25 .5488 18-0, No. 1 seed, lost to Kentucky in R32
2013 +0.10 .6836 12-6, No. 9 seed, lost to Louisville in Final Four
2012 +0.21 .6329 16-2, No. 5 seed, lost to VCU in R64
The Valley is indeed weaker statistically this season, but, if we confine the discussion to the league’s post-Creighton era, the conference’s 2016 KenPom rating isn’t dramatically different than it was in 2014. That was the season when Wichita State ran the table in the regular season and earned a No. 1 seed in the field of 68.
I’ll continue to measure Marshall’s team against not only its current rivals but also its predecessors as the Shockers play the back 56 percent of their schedule.
Mountain West: Beet-down in Laramie
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Boise State 6-1 69.1 1.12 0.98 +0.14 2. San Diego State 7-0 64.6 1.05 0.91 +0.14 3. New Mexico 4-2 73.2 1.06 0.95 +0.11 4. UNLV 3-4 71.6 1.03 0.93 +0.10 5. Fresno State 4-3 69.4 0.99 0.99 0.00 6. Nevada 4-3 73.6 0.98 0.99 -0.01 7. Colorado State 3-3 69.0 1.11 1.13 -0.02 8. Wyoming 3-5 67.1 0.95 0.99 -0.04 9. Utah State 3-5 68.2 1.04 1.09 -0.05 10. San Jose State 1-7 69.3 0.96 1.10 -0.14 11. Air Force 1-6 68.5 0.91 1.09 -0.18 AVG. 69.4 1.02 KenPom rank: 10 % of games played: 39
Over the weekend Boise State defeated Wyoming 81-71 in Laramie, where the Cowboys rather famously play on a court that’s renowned as having the highest elevation (7,220 feet) of any home floor in Division I.
And I think I’ll just let Dave Southorn of the Idaho Statesman take it from here:
Seeking any possible way to negate Wyoming’s home court advantage…Boise State men’s basketball coach Leon Rice asked strength and conditioning coach Adam Hermann for some help.
The altitude was a mental issue more than anything, Hermann said.
But Rice needed something, anything. Hermann mentioned a Norwegian study he read that said beet juice improved blood vessel function. That’s all Rice needed to hear.
So Hermann stopped by Whole Foods on Friday to get enough for the whole team….
“I even took some, and it’s the best I’ve felt here — never got dizzy, never felt like passing out,” Rice said. “Adam should get an assist.”
I’m no scientician, but blood vessel function is important at all elevations, right? Perhaps the Broncos will make this a regular thing. In any event Rice’s guys pulled into the Tuesday Truths lead this week: BSU’s now outscoring the Mountain West by 0.1426 points per trip, a hair better than San Diego State’s figure. Keep up the good work, Broncs.
WCC: A closer look at SMC’s historically insane shooting
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Saint Mary's 8-1 62.2 1.24 0.98 +0.26 2. Gonzaga 7-2 67.6 1.21 1.02 +0.19 3. BYU 5-3 73.2 1.13 1.04 +0.09 4. Pepperdine 6-3 67.2 1.10 1.08 +0.02 5. San Francisco 4-5 72.3 1.13 1.15 -0.02 6. Portland 3-6 72.6 1.09 1.13 -0.04 7. Pacific 4-5 66.7 1.02 1.09 -0.07 8. Santa Clara 3-6 64.4 1.03 1.14 -0.11 9. Loyola Marymount 3-6 66.2 1.00 1.12 -0.12 10. San Diego 1-7 66.2 0.93 1.13 -0.20 AVG. 67.8 1.09 KenPom rank: 12 % of games played: 49
At the halfway point of the WCC season, Saint Mary’s has connected on 60 percent of its 2s, and 44 percent of its 3s. The resulting 62.2 effective FG percentage is a big deal if it stays that high. Creighton set the Tuesday Truths standard for accuracy in 2013, when the Bluejays posted a 60.4 eFG percentage in Missouri Valley play.
The other day when I tweeted out a sentiment to the effect that SMC’s accuracy is fairly robust, I received some responses saying just wait, that number will come down to earth, etc. It very well might, and it’s also true that the Gaels haven’t yet played road games at places like Gonzaga and BYU. (In fact, Saint Mary’s is yet to play basketball this entire 2015-16 regular season outside the state of California. Which is why I’ve proposed the following catchy slogan for SMC 2015-16: “Hey, It’s a Big State.”)
Fair enough, skeptical and putatively omniscient Twitter responders. (It’s true! They exist!) Let’s take a look at how Creighton set this record in the first place. Under “eFG” I’m referring to the Jays’ cumulative year-to-date figure in that magical Dougie-era 2013 campaign….
Year-to-date Game No. eFG% 1 59.0 2 61.8 3 63.2 4 67.1 5 67.1 6 66.0 7 63.5 8 61.5 9 62.9 10 63.6 11 63.4 12 62.2 13 60.2 14 59.6 15 59.7 16 59.4 17 59.3 18 60.4
When you see an ostentatiously good number for anything the Pavlovian response is to shout regression to the mean. Which is fine as far as it goes, and surely Creighton’s shooting did some regressing in 2013 between games 5 and 17. But the other side of that coin is the stickiness of a season-long number. Games where a team shoots well go into the books and those numbers stay there. The Jays’ eFG percentage stayed at 59 for two weeks until Greg McDermott’s team ended the season (and their Valley career) with their best shooting performance of the entire conference campaign in a 91-79 win at home over Wichita State.
Anyway, from my chair the Gaels are on pace to at least have a go at Creighton’s record. If you saw that coming before the season from a roster with easily the WCC’s lowest percentage of returning possession-minutes, take one step forward. I certainly did not.
John Gasaway 