Welcome to Tuesday Truths, where I look at how well 127 teams in the nation’s top 11 conferences are doing against their league opponents on a per-possession basis. For a tidy little homily on why this stuff is so very awesome, go here.
In honor of Wichita State’s 31-0 regular season, today the key word is perfection.
American: A perfect dichotomy
Through games of March 3, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession Opp. PPP: opponent PPP
EM: efficiency margin (PPP – Opp. PPP)
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Louisville 13-3 68.5 1.16 0.91 +0.25 2. Connecticut 11-5 65.7 1.09 0.94 +0.15 3. SMU 12-4 65.9 1.06 0.94 +0.12 4. Cincinnati 13-3 62.5 1.03 0.93 +0.10 5. Memphis 11-5 69.0 1.08 1.01 +0.07 6. Houston 7-9 66.8 1.03 1.11 -0.08 7. Rutgers 5-11 69.2 1.00 1.12 -0.12 8. Temple 2-14 67.7 1.01 1.16 -0.15 9. UCF 3-13 66.3 0.97 1.14 -0.17 10. S. Florida 3-13 65.1 0.95 1.12 -0.17 AVG. 66.7 1.04
Five teams from the American will make the NCAA tournament, and five teams won’t. There’s a larger performance difference between Nos. 5 (Memphis) and 6 (Houston, which by the way is playing better lately and really shooting the rock) than there is between 6 and 10.
Last week at Insider I pointed out that Louisville owes its gaudy efficiency margin in large part to the Cardinals’ total statistical domination of the league’s bottom half. Conversely against Connecticut, SMU, Cincinnati and Memphis, Rick Pitino’s club looks like this:
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Louisville 3-3 68.3 0.99 0.97 +0.02
Meaning no top-15 team in the country up to and including Florida or Arizona is better equipped to win its game in the round of 64 than Louisville. After that all bets will be off for the Cards.
ACC: A perfect February and (so far) March for the Heels
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Virginia 16-1 59.5 1.13 0.90 +0.23 2. Duke 12-4 62.8 1.19 1.01 +0.18 3. North Carolina 13-4 67.5 1.08 0.99 +0.09 4. Syracuse 13-3 57.0 1.08 1.00 +0.08 5. Pitt 10-7 61.2 1.09 1.03 +0.06 6. Florida St. 8-8 63.3 1.07 1.05 +0.02 7. Maryland 7-9 67.5 1.01 1.02 -0.01 8. Miami 6-10 56.9 1.02 1.04 -0.02 9. Clemson 9-7 57.9 0.97 1.00 -0.03 10. Notre Dame 6-12 60.9 1.06 1.12 -0.06 11. NC State 8-9 64.7 1.03 1.10 -0.07 12. Boston College 4-12 60.7 1.08 1.16 -0.08 13. Georgia Tech 4-12 63.0 0.98 1.09 -0.11 14. Wake Forest 5-11 65.8 0.99 1.12 -0.13 15. Virginia Tech 2-14 59.8 0.92 1.08 -0.16 AVG. 61.9 1.05
North Carolina opened ACC play 1-4. (The one win, by the way, was at home over Boston College, a feat Syracuse was unable to match.) Toss out those unsightly first five games, and you have a UNC team that would look like this:
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 3. North Carolina 12-0 68.0 1.13 0.98 +0.15
In other words all of the improvement here has been on offense. During the 12-game win streak Carolina has connected on precisely half of its twos and 38 percent of its threes — and done so while taking excellent care of the ball (16 percent turnover rate in the 12-0 stretch) and, of course, pounding the offensive glass (pulling in 39 percent of misses over the last dozen games).
Even during this run of mini-perfection James Michael McAdoo has continued to be somewhat imperfect inside the arc, hitting 44 percent of his twos over the last 12 games. The good news is Brice Johnson has drained 56 percent of his attempts inside the arc over that same span, and, as you’ve no doubt heard, Marcus Paige has suddenly become a regular Nik Stauskas from three-point land (he’s at 46 percent for the win streak — though he’s hit just two of his last nine).
Carolina hasn’t been invincible during the win streak, of course. NC State took the Heels to OT in Raleigh, and Roy Williams’ men were fortunate to emerge from a home game against seriously depleted Notre Dame with a 63-61 win last night. But it is often said the good teams find a way to win. North Carolina is a good team.
Weekly “We will all toil in Virginia’s underground sugar caves” tracker. Already covered at Insider yesterday. Enjoy.
A salute to individual near-perfection. You can watch a lot of basketball and not see a more decisive individual intervention in the outcome of a game than what NC State’s T.J. Warren did at Pittsburgh last night. In the Wolfpack’s 74-67 win over the Panthers, Warren scored 41 points on 16-of-22 shooting from the floor. He also added four steals on a night when he logged 38 minutes and no teammate played more than 24. Warren’s heroics allowed NC State to emerge from a (slow-paced) shootout with a win on an evening when the home team made 52 percent of its twos and 48 percent of its threes.
Indefatigable perfectionist T.J. Warren, I salute you!
Big 12: A perfect conundrum
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Kansas 13-3 68.4 1.17 1.02 +0.15 2. Oklahoma St. 8-9 68.1 1.08 1.03 +0.05 3. Oklahoma 10-6 70.3 1.11 1.07 +0.04 4. Iowa St. 10-6 71.9 1.08 1.05 +0.03 5. Baylor 7-9 64.1 1.10 1.08 +0.02 6. Texas 10-6 68.2 1.08 1.06 +0.02 7. Kansas St. 10-7 66.1 1.04 1.03 +0.01 8. West Virginia 8-8 68.5 1.10 1.12 -0.02 9. Texas Tech 5-11 61.5 1.05 1.10 -0.05 10. TCU 0-16 65.2 0.90 1.17 -0.27 AVG. 67.2 1.07
The Big 12 is going to put a large contingent of teams into the NCAA tournament, but how good is this conference really? I keep seeing teams like Iowa State and Oklahoma ranked and proactively seeded above what would be customary for groups that outscore their good leagues by very small margins.
Then again you may have noticed Oklahoma State is looking pretty tough in its post-star-suspension incarnation….
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 2. Oklahoma St. 4-0 66.3 1.17 0.91 +0.26
All due “one of those games was against TCU” qualifications apply here, of course, but all in all that’s a fairly impressive mini-run. It has come about, in part, because Travis Ford has turned his team into a perimeter-oriented terror. These sassy new-look Cowboys fire away (har!) from the perimeter, and those shots have gone in 40 percent of the time over the last four games. With opposing defenses preoccupied by a certain post-suspension star, Phil Forte has been freed up to record a 15-of-33 run of his own from beyond the arc.
From a coaching standpoint the conclusion here is inescapable. If your team is struggling, have your star player go into the stands and shove a fan.
Big East: Big game in DC tonight
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Creighton 13-3 65.2 1.20 1.05 +0.15 2. Villanova 14-2 65.1 1.15 1.01 +0.14 3. St. John's 9-8 66.5 1.03 0.99 +0.04 4. Xavier 10-7 65.1 1.09 1.07 +0.02 5. Providence 9-7 63.9 1.10 1.08 +0.02 6. Seton Hall 6-11 64.6 1.05 1.07 -0.02 7. Georgetown 7-9 63.6 1.04 1.07 -0.03 8. Marquette 9-7 65.4 1.04 1.07 -0.03 9. Butler 2-14 62.5 0.98 1.12 -0.14 10. DePaul 3-14 66.9 1.00 1.16 -0.16 AVG. 64.9 1.07
Creighton has looked rather lifeless in its last two games, barely beating Seton Hall at home before losing on the road to Xavier. Coming off of efforts like that, tonight’s game at Georgetown (senior night for the Hoyas) may hold some instructional value.
You can make a case that the Big East is being somewhat underrated this season, and if this is correct a team that can outscore a league this good by 0.15 points per possession could be a force to be reckoned with in the brackets. But, at the risk of being alarmist based on just 80 minutes of hoops, there are indications that the Bluejays may be reverting to Bad No Defense Creighton form. When the Pirates and the Musketeers — hardly Duke and Michigan where offense is concerned — can gash you to the tune of a combined 1.13 points per trip, your defense has question marks.
Georgetown hasn’t exactly been an unstoppable force on offense this season, so tonight should be a good test. Creighton still has hopes of winning a share of the Big East regular-season title, and the team’s star is widely and I believe correctly lauded as the best player in Division I. Time to produce.
Is Wisconsin the best team in the Big Ten?
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Michigan St. 11-5 63.2 1.11 1.01 +0.10 2. Wisconsin 11-5 63.4 1.13 1.04 +0.09 3. Iowa 9-7 69.5 1.13 1.05 +0.08 4. Michigan 13-3 61.6 1.15 1.07 +0.08 5. Ohio St. 9-8 64.1 1.02 0.96 +0.06 6. Nebraska 9-7 63.8 0.98 0.99 -0.01 7. Indiana 7-9 65.5 0.99 1.02 -0.03 8. Minnesota 7-10 62.5 1.05 1.09 -0.04 9. Illinois 6-10 62.6 0.95 1.00 -0.05 10. Purdue 5-11 65.4 1.00 1.07 -0.07 11. Penn St. 5-11 66.0 1.00 1.08 -0.08 12. Northwestern 5-11 60.5 0.89 1.03 -0.14 AVG. 64.0 1.03
Statistically the Big Ten is distinguished this season by the clear lack of a bully that can, you know, win home games. (In my day, teams won home games. There. End of rant.) But perhaps the Badgers can salvage some sense of hierarchical order from this teeming multi-team chaos. It turns out that Bo Ryan’s team has mounted a nice little UNC-like streak of its own:
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 2. Wisconsin 7-0 62.4 1.16 1.03 +0.13
Even during a win streak this is still a very average Wisconsin defense, and it will continue to look odd that opposing teams can make half their twos against very tall guys in uniforms that in the past have often adorned players that inflicted tough D on their foes. That being said, when you never commit turnovers and hit your threes you can win some games.
Circle the date: Wisconsin at Nebraska on Sunday. Strength on strength, a criminally underrated Husker D against the remorselessly efficient Badger offense. Should be a perfect showdown. (Linking device resurrected.)
Pac-12: Can we trust Oregon yet?
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Arizona 14-2 64.5 1.09 0.90 +0.19 2. UCLA 11-5 70.2 1.12 1.01 +0.11 3. Utah 8-8 65.8 1.06 1.00 +0.06 4. Oregon 8-8 68.5 1.10 1.05 +0.05 5. Stanford 9-7 67.2 1.07 1.03 +0.04 6. Arizona St. 10-6 69.5 1.01 0.99 +0.02 7. Cal 9-7 67.8 1.06 1.06 0.00 8. Washington 8-8 66.9 1.04 1.05 -0.01 9. Colorado 9-7 67.6 1.02 1.04 -0.02 10. Oregon St. 7-9 67.2 1.06 1.10 -0.04 11. USC 1-15 70.3 0.94 1.12 -0.18 12. Washington St. 2-14 60.4 0.90 1.13 -0.23 AVG. 67.2 1.04
The Ducks would appear to be embarked on a run that can evoke comparisons to North Carolina, Oklahoma State or Wisconsin:
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 4. Oregon 5-0 64.8 1.18 1.04 +0.14
Two words of caution are in order, however. Oregon’s beautiful five-game numbers benefit from having played a couple of contests against Washington State and USC. (Though, to be fair, in that same stretch Dana Altman’s team also logged 50 minutes at UCLA, which in theory should be the second-toughest gig this league can throw at you.) And during this five-game happy time opponents have been unable to make a three to save their lives. That will change at some point.
Circle the calendar: Arizona at Oregon on Saturday.
SEC: Don’t give up on the Calipari system yet
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Florida 16-0 61.8 1.13 0.94 +0.19 2. Kentucky 11-5 66.1 1.10 1.00 +0.10 3. Tennessee 9-7 62.3 1.09 0.99 +0.10 4. Georgia 10-6 64.3 1.03 1.01 +0.02 5. Arkansas 9-7 70.5 1.03 1.01 +0.02 6. Missouri 8-8 65.5 1.11 1.10 +0.01 7. LSU 8-8 70.2 1.06 1.06 0.00 8. Ole Miss 8-8 67.6 1.05 1.06 -0.01 9. Auburn 5-11 67.7 1.03 1.07 -0.04 10. Texas A&M 8-8 63.0 0.95 0.99 -0.04 11. Vanderbilt 7-9 61.0 0.99 1.05 -0.06 12. Alabama 6-10 64.0 1.02 1.08 -0.06 13. South Carolina 4-12 67.2 1.01 1.09 -0.08 14. Mississippi St. 3-13 68.6 0.96 1.10 -0.14 AVG. 65.7 1.04
In his first three seasons at Kentucky, John Calipari put very youthful teams on the floor and reached the Elite Eight and the Final Four before winning a national title in 2012. Last year Nerlens Noel was lost for the season on February 12, and the Wildcats just missed the tournament.
Which brings us to this year.
Over the last 3 games Kentucky has shot 37% on 2s, 27% on 3s.
— John Gasaway (@JohnGasaway) March 2, 2014
This season’s precocious youngsters can’t throw the ball in the ocean from a rowboat right now, but one presumes that this will correct toward normalcy at some point. I do wonder at times whether Calipari could benefit from having an assistant on his staff whose sole responsibility is to save one scholarship spot per year for an incorrigibly unglamorous but nevertheless really handy Michael Frazier type, but that’s just me.
For the sake of illustration let’s be dire and defeatist and write these guys off now. They will lose the first weekend. When that happens Calipari will have completed his fifth season in Lexington. And, all in all, a system that produces a national title and three regional finals every five years isn’t all that bad. I’d take that.
(Nor am I sure that I buy the burgeoning school of historiography that says Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist were unique. If by unique you mean Davis was the best college player I’ve seen in the last five years, I’ll co-sign. Just remember, though, that John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins formed a pretty good duo too, and if the Wildcats had gone 7-of-32 on their threes against West Virginia instead of 4-of-32, who knows. Maybe we’d be sitting around in 2014 talking about how unique those guys were.)
A-10: VCU is good at basketball
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. VCU 10-4 71.2 1.05 0.93 +0.12 2. Saint Louis 12-2 67.4 1.01 0.93 +0.08 3. GW 9-5 68.6 1.04 0.97 +0.07 4. Saint Joseph's 11-3 65.7 1.07 1.00 +0.07 5. UMass 9-5 70.3 1.05 1.01 +0.04 6. St. Bonaventure 6-9 67.6 1.07 1.06 +0.01 7. Dayton 8-6 65.0 1.07 1.07 0.00 8. Richmond 8-6 64.2 1.03 1.04 -0.01 9. Rhode Island 4-11 65.4 1.02 1.05 -0.03 10. La Salle 6-8 65.4 0.98 1.03 -0.05 11. George Mason 3-11 67.8 1.06 1.11 -0.05 12. Duquesne 4-10 68.0 1.01 1.08 -0.07 13. Fordham 2-12 68.0 0.98 1.16 -0.18 AVG. 67.3 1.03
The Rams still aren’t ranked in this week’s AP poll, but even in a 16-game A-10 where it seems like no one ever plays anyone it is becoming increasingly plausible that Shaka Smart may have the best team in the league.
VCU’s interior defense on effective (turnover-less) possessions isn’t great but it’s good enough, and Juvonte Reddic attacks the offensive glass like a man possessed. Reddic hasn’t come away from a game without recording at least three offensive boards in six weeks.
There’s a good chance an under-appreciated team like Smart’s will have to face a No. 1 or a 2 seed in the round of 32, meaning all this yummy hoops goodness may be pitted against a Florida or Kansas in fairly short order. Them’s the breaks, but come what may let the word go forth. This has been a strong season from the Rams.
Missouri Valley: This perfection is in the books
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Wichita St. 18-0 63.5 1.16 0.91 +0.25 2. N. Iowa 10-8 63.6 1.16 1.08 +0.08 3. Indiana St. 12-6 64.9 1.02 1.01 +0.01 4. Illinois St. 9-9 65.3 1.01 1.01 0.00 5. S. Illinois 9-9 60.6 1.08 1.08 0.00 6. Missouri St. 9-9 62.4 1.05 1.08 -0.03 7. Bradley 7-11 62.1 0.99 1.04 -0.05 8. Loyola 4-14 63.0 1.00 1.07 -0.07 9. Drake 6-12 63.0 1.02 1.11 -0.09 10. Evansville 6-12 65.3 1.01 1.11 -0.10 AVG. 63.4 1.05
Take your hat off to Wichita State, which has done something we haven’t seen happen in 10 years. Gregg Marshall, I salute you! This whole anger thing seems really effective. May have to try it in my line of work. (What are YOU looking at?!)
Here’s an item from last week, updated with the latest figures on the Shockers. These are the best mid-majors Tuesday Truths has tracked:
Efficiency margin, conference games only
W-L EM
Gonzaga 2013 16-0 +0.30
Memphis 2009 16-0 +0.27
Wichita St. 2014 18-0 +0.25
Wichita St. 2012 16-2 +0.22
Memphis 2012 13-3 +0.22
Xavier 2011 15-1 +0.22
BYU 2010 13-3 +0.22
Butler 2010 18-0 +0.20
(To repeat: Memphis in 2008 would be up on these same bleachers if I had been tracking Conference USA in 2008, which I was not.)
The Valley was down this season, but we’ve seen great teams from weak leagues before and lived to tell the tale. Wichita State is a great team from a weak league. And it will be outrageously riveting TV to finally see the Shockers get some competition. Bless you, NCAA tournament.
Mountain West: The polls see a difference between the top two but I’m not sure I do
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. New Mexico 14-2 63.5 1.14 1.00 +0.14 2. San Diego St. 14-2 63.3 1.08 0.95 +0.13 3. UNLV 10-6 63.5 1.08 1.02 +0.06 4. Boise St. 9-7 63.2 1.13 1.10 +0.03 5. Wyoming 8-8 57.7 1.05 1.03 +0.02 6. Fresno St. 8-9 64.2 1.10 1.09 +0.01 7. Nevada 8-8 62.4 1.06 1.06 0.00 8. Colorado St. 6-10 63.8 1.06 1.07 -0.01 9. Utah St. 6-11 62.7 1.05 1.08 -0.03 10. Air Force 5-11 63.5 0.97 1.07 -0.10 11. San Jose St. 1-15 64.1 0.87 1.10 -0.23 AVG. 62.9 1.05
Part of me wishes the Mountain West were still a true round-robin league like the good old days, but I’m man enough to understand that when you have a shot at landing San Jose State you just have to pull that trigger.
Short of the balanced scheduling that the round-robin format gives us, I’ll stay away from sweeping declarative statements like: New Mexico and San Diego State look identical to me. But I will say this: New Mexico and San Diego state look really, really, really similar to me, and that’s based on about a thousand possessions from each. Good sample size, that.
West Coast: These imperfections are final
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Gonzaga 15-3 65.8 1.11 0.94 +0.17 2. BYU 13-5 69.4 1.16 1.06 +0.10 3. San Francisco 13-5 64.2 1.09 1.05 +0.04 4. Saint Mary's 11-7 62.8 1.09 1.06 +0.03 5. Portland 7-11 65.0 1.08 1.09 -0.01 6. Pepperdine 8-10 66.6 1.04 1.09 -0.05 7. San Diego 7-11 62.0 1.04 1.09 -0.05 8. Santa Clara 6-12 65.4 1.03 1.09 -0.06 9. Pacific 6-12 66.6 1.06 1.13 -0.07 10. Loyola Marymount 4-14 68.3 1.01 1.12 -0.11 AVG. 65.6 1.07
To repeat some points outlined last week, this will be an unusually fun WCC tournament this week. Gonzaga is showing up in mock brackets as a No. 10 seed, so the Zags are probably safely in the field of 68 regardless of what happens in Vegas. Then again a quarterfinal loss to Pacific or Santa Clara would not present a very savory visual. I advise winning that one. (Analysis!)
As for BYU, the Cougars are projected on the 11 line, so the stakes here are about as big as they can get. Dave Rose’s team will face either Portland or Loyola Marymount, and as seen here there’s a fairly appreciable difference in quality between those two opponents. So, yes, tournament bids can be at least partly at stake in an otherwise innocuous first-round West Coast tournament game between the Pilots and the Lions. I love March.
John Gasaway 