Congratulations, Florida, on a third men’s national title. Your six-game run to the championship not only included multiple stirring comebacks from second-half deficits, it also lifted you into the top 10 for tournament wins since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
Well done, Gators. Tough luck, former top-10 member Michigan.
Expanding the field 40 years ago did away with byes, giving us a trusty measuring stick when teams accumulate tournament victories over the years. Yes, the NCAA muddied that up a bit by expanding past 64 teams starting in 2001, but we can adjust with a well-placed asterisk here and there.
Top 25 for NCAA men’s tournament wins, 1985-2025
Wins
1. Duke 109
2. North Carolina 99* 2025
3. Kansas 94
4. Kentucky 86
5. UConn 68
6. Michigan State 66
7. Arizona 60
8. Syracuse 57* 2018
9. UCLA 56* 2021
10. Florida 54 (Congrats!)
11. Michigan 53* 2016
12. Louisville 49
13. Villanova 47
Gonzaga 47
15. Purdue 42
16. Arkansas 40
17. Maryland 37
Oklahoma 37
Wisconsin 37
Indiana 37* 2022
21. Ohio State 35
22. Illinois 34
Texas 34
24. Georgetown 33
25. Xavier 31* 2025
* Round of 68 victoryIn other news I think we can all agree that the big story coming out of the 2025 bracket is Kansas and its shocking performance against seed expectation in years when it does not win it all.
First, some background….
Last year at this time I was peeved that search engines were still giving me values for performance against seed expectation (PASE) that dated from the aughts. So I harrumphed and grumbled and worked up the correct 2020s-era values myself.
Then the 2025 men’s NCAA tournament happened. Said event was pretty chalky overall and, of course, as chalky as it gets at the end. All four top seeds reached the Final Four. As a result we have to reset our expectations going forward. Literally!
Here are the up-to-date values for PASE based on 2,519 actual games and one forfeit in and subsequent to the round of 64 in every bracket from 1985 through 2025. (We don’t sweat the First Four with PASE.)
Use these next year….
seed expected Ws seed expected Ws
1. 3.34 9. 0.61
2. 2.33 10. 0.61
3. 1.84 11. 0.66
4. 1.56 12. 0.51
5. 1.14 13. 0.24
6. 1.05 14. 0.16
7. 0.89 15. 0.10
8. 0.71 16. 0.01
Wins in and subsequent to round of 64 onlyThe combination of a first-round exit by Kansas and a Final Four with nothing but top seeds did no favors for the Jayhawks’ number for PASE over the past four decades. KU has earned no fewer than 16 No. 1 seeds since 1985. By seed the program “should” have won 93 games over that span. As it happens, Kansas has won “just” (ha) 94.
Ask me if I’d be happy if my team had 94 NCAA tournament wins and three modern-era national titles. Yeah, I think I’d take that.
Still, it’s notable that the Jayhawks’ record in PASE terms is so much more humble than that of every other member of the top-10 wins club not named Arizona. Indeed in 36 modern-era appearances where KU has not won a national title the program is underwater on PASE (-9.39).
PASE among winningest programs, 1985-2025
Performance against seed expectation
expected Ws actual PASE
1. UConn 47.38 68 +20.62
2. North Carolina 82.36 98 +15.64
3. Duke 94.39 109 +14.61
Kentucky 71.39 86 +14.61
5. Michigan State 52.20 66 +13.13
6. Florida 38.15 51 +12.85
7. UCLA 43.88 55 +11.13
8. Syracuse 46.04 56 +9.96
9. Kansas 93.12 94 +0.88
10. Arizona 65.45 58 -7.45
Wins in and subsequent to round of 64 only
UConn looks as good as you might expect from a program that’s 6-0 in national championship games. The Huskies don’t get as many opportunities as a Duke, UNC, or Kansas, but when they make it into the bracket they really seize the day.
Note additionally that across four decades of modern tournament competition Duke and Kentucky are in a dead heat right down to the last decimal point. Both programs show the identical (very good) performance against seed expectation. What are the chances.
Enough talk of expectations. Back to straight wins.
Here’s the full leaderboard for all 219 teams that have won a game in the modern tournament era. Newcomers McNeese and Alabama State, I salute you!
NCAA tournament wins, 1985-2025
Wins
1. Duke 109
2. North Carolina 99* 2025
3. Kansas 94
4. Kentucky 86
5. UConn 68
6. Michigan State 66
7. Arizona 60
8. Syracuse 57* 2018
9. UCLA 56* 2021
10. Florida 54
11. Michigan 53* 2016
12. Louisville 49
13. Villanova 47
Gonzaga 47
15. Purdue 42
16. Arkansas 40
17. Maryland 37
Oklahoma 37
Wisconsin 37
Indiana 37* 2022
21. Ohio State 35
22. Illinois 34
Texas 34
24. Georgetown 33
25. Xavier 31* 2025
26. Alabama 30
27. Memphis 28
28. Cincinnati 26
Tennessee 26* 2014
30. UNLV 24
Virginia 24
Oklahoma State 24
Temple 24
34. Auburn 23
Iowa State 23
Oregon 23
NC State 23* 2014
38. Butler 22
Georgia Tech 22
Utah 22
West Virginia 22
42. Baylor 21
Pitt 21* 2023
44. Stanford 20
45. Houston 19
LSU 19
Marquette 19
Texas Tech 19
Notre Dame 19* 2022
50. Florida State 18
Iowa 18
52. Missouri 17
Kansas State 17* 2017
54. St. John's 16
Seton Hall 16
Wake Forest 16
57. Creighton 15
Miami 15
59. Boston College 13
San Diego State 13
61. Minnesota 12
Texas A&M 12
USC 12* 2017
Wichita State 12* 2016
65. UMass 11
Tulsa 11
Washington 11
Clemson 11* 2011
69. Mississippi State 10
Providence 10
VCU 10* 2011
72. Cal 9
Vanderbilt 9
BYU 9* 2012
Western Kentucky 9* 2012
76. Loyola Chicago 8
Rhode Island 8
Saint Joseph's 8
Dayton 8* 2015
80. DePaul 7
New Mexico 7
Richmond 7
Ole Miss 7* 2015
Saint Mary's 7* 2013
Arizona State 7* 2019, 2023
86. Nevada 6
UAB 6
88. George Mason 5
Murray Sate 5
Northern Iowa 5
Saint Louis 5
Southern Illinois 5
UTEP 5
Colorado 5* 2024
95. Charlotte 4
Florida Atlantic 4
George Washington 4
Georgia 4
Kent State 4
Loyola Marymount 4
Navy 4
New Mexico State 4
Ohio 4
Penn State 4
Princeton 4
South Carolina 4
Virginia Tech 4
Washington State 4
Colorado State 4* 2024
La Salle 4* 2013
Siena 4** 2002
112. Ball State 3
Bradley 3
Cleveland State 3
Davidson 3
Eastern Michigan 3
Louisiana Tech 3
Miami OH 3
Middle Tennessee 3
Milwaukee 3
Missouri State 3
Northwestern 3
Old Dominion 3
Oregon State 3
Saint Peter's 3
TCU 3
Tulane 3
Wyoming 3
Florida Gulf Coast 3* 2016
Fairleigh Dickinson 3* 2019, 2023
Mount St. Mary's 3** 2008, * 2017, 2025
Texas Southern 3* 2018, 2021, 2022
133. Bucknell 2
Buffalo 2
Chattanooga 2
Cornell 2
Detroit 2
Georgia State 2
Harvard 2
Illinois State 2
Little Rock 2
Manhattan 2
Oral Roberts 2
Pacific 2
Santa Clara 2
SMU 2
Stephen F. Austin 2
Utah State 2
Valparaiso 2
Weber State 2
Yale 2
Drake 2* 2021
Hampton 2* 2015
James Madison 2* 2013
Morehead State 2** 2009
Norfolk State 2* 2021
North Dakota State 2* 2019
Northwestern State 2** 2001
Oakland 2** 2005
South Florida 2* 2012
Vermont 2* 2012
UNC Asheville 2** 2003, * 2011
163. Abilene Christian 1
Austin Peay 1
Central Michigan 1
Charleston 1
Coppin State 1
Drexel 1
Duquesne 1
East Tennessee State 1
Evansville 1
Fresno State 1
Furman 1
Grand Canyon 1
Green Bay 1
Hawaii 1
Indiana State 1
Lehigh 1
Liberty 1
Louisiana 1
Marshall 1
McNeese 1
Mercer 1
Montana 1
New Orleans 1
North Texas 1
Penn 1
Pepperdine 1
Rutgers 1
San Diego 1
South Alabama 1
Southern 1
UC Irvine 1
UC Santa Barbara 1
UCF 1
UMBC 1
UNC Wilmington 1
Western Michigan 1
Winthrop 1
Wofford 1
Alabama State 1* 2025
Albany 1* 2014
Arkansas Pine Bluff 1** 2010
Belmont 1* 2019
Cal Poly 1* 2014
Grambling State 1* 2024
Florida A&M 1** 2004
Holy Cross 1* 2016
Monmouth 1** 2006
Niagara 1** 2007
North Carolina A&T 1* 2013
Radford 1* 2018
Robert Morris 1* 2015
St. Bonaventure 1* 2018
TAMU Corpus Christi 1* 2023
UC Davis 1* 2017
UTSA 1* 2011
Wagner 1* 2024
Wright State 1* 2022
* Round of 68 wins
** Round of 65 winsThere are 94 teams that have appeared at least once in the modern-era tournament without winning a game. Iona leads that list with 13 appearances since 1985, followed by Boise State (nine), Nebraska (eight), and Akron, Colgate, and South Dakota State (seven apiece).
Long live the Madness.
John Gasaway 