(USA Today)

If we turned back the clock five months, here are the events that would have surprised me….

Things I missed badly on:
–Michigan State losing in the round of 64. I had the Spartans lasting a few games longer than that.

–Davidson being meh. I thought the Wildcats would be significantly better (like, NCAA tournament bid-worthy).

Things I didn’t even think to have an opinion on because I didn’t see them coming at all:
–Bo Ryan retiring in-season.

–Jamie Dixon to TCU.

–Kevin Stallings to Pitt.

–Monmouth garnering more coverage than the two 2011 national championship game participants combined.

Things I stumbled across in the dark and got right:
–Stayed away from undue pessimism regarding the new shot clock.

–Hogged space on the ground floor of the great “no great teams” meme of 2015-16.

Things I want to work on next:
–A better bracketing process.

Last thought on selection, because this is already way too late. There’s a line from “The Searchers” that speaks to our current plight….

— John Gasaway (@JohnGasaway) March 15, 2016

“Right now we’re too many and we’re not enough.” That’s kind of how I feel about the very idea of a selection “committee”….

— John Gasaway (@JohnGasaway) March 15, 2016

Every year we have the essentially the same reaction to the bracket because the very idea of 10 people trying to do this is farcical….

— John Gasaway (@JohnGasaway) March 15, 2016

–Better understanding of talent and basketball.

With any four-year group of top-50 recruits, a good rule of thumb is going to be that about one out of every four of those guys will make all-conference in the broadest possible sense of that term (including second-team recognition and even honorable mentions).

            All-American      All-Conference      First-round pick
                 %                  %                   %
Top-100          4                 14                  14
Top-50           6                 24                  26
Top-10          20                 68                  70

The natural next question is what about players outside the top 100?

Doug McDermott was a three-time All-American and was drafted at No. 11. Victor Oladipo was an All-American who was drafted at No. 2. Other recent examples of non-top-100 players who nevertheless went on to become lottery picks include Elfrid Payton, C.J. McCollum, Alec Burks, and Kawhi Leonard.

Are coaches recruiting with the best set of assumptions? Are analysts’ grades based on potential college impact or merely shortest-distance-to-the-draft, etc.

See you soon.